1 Detroit pleads poverty - in style
Detroit execs were initially hoping for $25 billion - and a quick getaway. Like someone arriving at a food bank in a limousine, the chief executives of the three major U.S. automakers spark outrage when they fly their corporate jets to Washington D.C. to beg Congress for a multi-billion dollar bailout. Yes, we know that corporate jets are often a cost-effective way for the heads of far-flung corporations to get around. But someone should have known this wasn't going to look good (and, sure enough, Congress sent the auto chiefs away empty-handed). At the very least, couldn't they have shared a ride?
2 Lamest road trip ever
Let's see...corporate jets are a no-no...the subway doesn't go that far...A bike ride might just kill us...I know! Let's drive the 10 hours from Detroit to D.C. - in one of our cool hybrid cars! Given a second chance after the private-jet fiasco to plead their case before Congress, the Detroit 3 take to the road (separately, of course) in a company fuel-sipper. In the case of Chrysler's Robert Nardelli, the exercise in overkill is particularly awkward: The Chrysler Aspen Hybrid he drove will soon be discontinued.
3 Paulson's 3-page plea for $700B
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson learns how not to reach for $700 billion. In September, days after Lehman Brothers collapses and two other giants teeter on the abyss, Paulson submits his "break the glass" plan for saving the U.S. financial system. All of three pages, the proposal seeks carte-blanche access to $700 billion in government funding to buy up troubled mortgage assets at the root of the financial crisis - with scant details on how or where the money will be spent. Just as galling, Paulson includes a provision in the bill that will exempt his spending from court challenges. Congress axes the legal cloak, prompting Rep. Barney Frank to quip, "We have disexempted him." But the damage is done, and the proposal fails in the House Sept. 29 - triggering another massive market sell-off.
4 Bloating up the bailout
Maybe three pages wasn't such a bad idea after all...When Congress is done with it, Paulson's proposal for saving the U.S. financial system balloons to 451 pages and is loaded with pork barrel spending - including, unbelievably, a cut in taxes on toy arrows and an extended tax break on "wool products." Backers of the arrow tax exemption - section 503, for the record - say it reverses a wrongheaded 2004 law that sharply increased tax rates on cheap kids' arrows.
5 Mozilo's 'disgusting' reply-all
If you thought the former Countrywide CEO couldn't sink any lower, think again. Already under attack as the overpaid, over-tanned and over-zealous pioneer of subprime mortgages, Angelo Mozilo doesn't do himself any favors in May after reading a customer's e-mailed plea for help with his home loan. Intending to forward the missive to a colleague, Mozilo instead hits "reply all" and sends a response calling the beleaguered homeowner's request "unbelievable" and "disgusting." "Most of letters now have the same wording," grouses Mozilo. "Obviously they are being counseled by some other person or by the internet." Mozilo's heartfelt reply makes its way onto the Internet - and the onetime real estate king finds himself out of a job after Bank of America acquires Countrywide in July.
6 An iPhone app for just $999.99
Nobody would pay nearly a thousand bucks for a screen-saver, right? The release of the new Apple iPhone in July introduces to the masses the world of mobile video games and other time-sucking applications designed by non-Apple software developers - most of them available for less than $10. But one application sneaks past Apple's gatekeepers and onto the company's new App Store: "I Am Rich," a $999.99 screen-saver whose sole feature is a glowing red jewel. Apple gets blasted for making the application available for sale and then quietly removing it, but the real losers? The eight suckers who bought it.
7 Paulson's 'bazooka' backfires
Actions speak louder than words, Mr. Paulson. As shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac plunge in mid-July on worries about their viability, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson assures Congress that merely promising to give the beleaguered mortgage lenders access to Treasury funding would calm market fears - at no cost to Uncle Sam. "If you've got a squirt gun in your pocket, you may have to take it out," Paulson tells legislators. "If you've got a bazooka and people know you've got it, you may not have to take it out." Congress delivers the bazooka, but investors aren't buying it. Two months later, Treasury takes over both companies in a move that could cost taxpayers billions of dollars.
8 Fannie's delusions of grandeur
Fannie Mae CEO Dan Mudd proves once again that his crystal ball is malfunctioning. In May, Mudd predicts that the government-sponsored mortgage lender will "feast" on weakened competition in the mortgage market - even as its own prospects dim amid mounting credit losses and asset writedowns. By September, on the brink of collapse, Fannie gets a new owner - Uncle Sam - and Mudd loses a job.
9 Sex for oil
This fall, the division of the Department of Interior responsible for granting leases for energy exploration and production in federal waters is caught with its pants down. The agency's Inspector General finds that staffers were taking gifts, having sex and engaging in illegal drug use with employees of some of the oil companies they oversee. As the report detailing the ethical abuses puts it: "We...discovered a culture of substance abuse and promiscuity in the...program."
10 Global warming? What a 'crock'
The General Motors exec behind the Chevrolet Volt electric car hands environmentalists another twig to beat GM with when he reportedly calls global warming "a crock of sh-t." Bob Lutz, GM's vice chairman for product development, later addresses the uproar on his own blog: "General Motors is dedicated to the removal of cars and trucks from the environmental equation, period. And, believe it or don't: So am I!"
11 Housing rescue comes up short
Remember Hope for Homeowners? We didn't think so. In July, Congress passes the only housing rescue to date: a plan to guarantee up to $300 billion worth of mortgages and prevent more than 300,000 foreclosures. But to participate, banks must take steep losses -- and doing so is voluntary. The anti-climactic upshot: A piddling 321 applications have been filed since the program's Oct. 1 launch - and not one loan workout has been completed, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
12 Cox's short-selling ban
Careful what you wish for. Under attack for not doing more to stop the market plunge, SEC chief Christopher Cox finally institutes a temporary ban on shorting, or betting against, 799 financial stocks. "The emergency order temporarily banning short selling of financial stocks will restore equilibrium to markets," Cox promises. But shares in banks, brokerages and insurance companies continue to plunge, losing a quarter of their value during the three weeks the mid-September order was effective. Some investors say the short ban hastened the flight of capital from stock and bond markets, by showing the government could intervene in markets in unexpected and troublesome ways.
13 McCain's economic denial
At least he warned us: On the morning of Sept. 15, as Lehman Brothers declares bankruptcy, Republican presidential candidate John McCain declares "the fundamentals of this economy are strong." By day's end, the Dow falls more than 500 points, the date becomes known as Black Monday, and McCain starts backpedaling fast. Maybe we should have seen this coming: In late 2007, McCain admits "the issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should," adding, "I've got Greenspan's book."
14 Obama's tough talk on NAFTA
In a rare off-message moment for Barack Obama's presidential campaign, a top economic adviser privately assures Canadian officials in February that his candidate didn't really mean it when he threatened to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which U.S. blue-collar workers complain has shifted jobs to Canada and Mexico. "Political maneuvering" was how Austan Goolsbee described Obama's protectionist rhetoric to Canadian authorities. Smart politics - until a Canadian government memo of Goolsbee's meeting leaks out and Goolsbee is banished to no-media-allowed shed for the remainder of the election.
15 Microsoft overbids for Yahoo
The headlines seem so quaint now: Microsoft makes a $44.6 billion play for Yahoo in yet another bid to catch up to Google. The $31-per-share offer represents a 61% premium over Yahoo's price at the time of the February overture. Microsoft's strategy makes some sense, but CEO Steve Ballmer fails to anticipate Yahoo chief Jerry Yang's intransigence, which ultimately scuttles any chance of a deal. Nor does Ballmer foresee the economic crisis that, by year end, is dragging down the tech sector. With Yahoo shares trading at $12 apiece, the company is now worth $17 billion. Ballmer, however, gets the last laugh: by year end, he's still calling the shots at Microsoft. At Yahoo, Yang isn't.
16 Yahoo turns down payday
If Microsoft's offer for Yahoo was wrong-headed, Yahoo's opposition to it was downright bone-headed. It took until July, when Microsoft finally throws up its hands and walks away, for Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang to fumble a deal that would have rewarded shareholders with a payday that was three times what Yahoo shares were fetching at year-end. Along the way, Yahoo flirts with Google - only to see any potential deal scuttled by antitrust regulators. As 2009 approaches, Yahoo's chances of turning itself around look slim.
17 SEC's Madoff miss
Leave it to the markets to do the SEC's job for it. It took plunging stocks to bring to light the largest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history - an estimated $50 billion fraud orchestrated by Bernard L. Madoff, one of Wall Street's best-known money managers. The scheme - in which money from new investors is disguised as market returns for early investors - allegedly goes on for decades before Madoff effectively turns himself in in early December. As news reports reveal that the Securities and Exchange Commission had probed Madoff and his New York City investment firm over the years, chief Christopher Cox cops to the embarrassing screw-up: "I am gravely concerned by the apparent multiple failures over at least a decade to thoroughly investigate these allegations."
18 Rage against oil speculators
With oil prices skyrocketing toward their $147-a-barrel high in July, people smell a rat. Oil traders, hedge funds, Wall Street types...they're all to blame for artificially inflating the price of crude and reaping huge profits at the expense of drivers everywhere. Or so the thinking (and Congressional hearings) goes until prices suddenly collapse throughout the fall, bringing oil down to about $37 a barrel. The culprit this time? Softening demand amid a reeling global economy. So much for thinking fundamentals don't matter.
19 Jobs' 'greatly exaggerated' death
Newspapers prepare obituaries of famous people before they die, but few publish them while the subjects are still alive. In August, Bloomberg News accidentally releases an obit for Apple CEO Steve Jobs, who - despite a well-publicized brush with pancreatic cancer - is still alive and kicking. As if that wasn't enough, in October a post on CNN's user-generated site, iReport, claims that Jobs has suffered a heart attack. The erroneous report sends Apple's stock down 10% in just 10 minutes. At his next media appearance, Jobs appears in front of a giant screen with the message, "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
20 Phil Gramm's 'mental recession'
In early July, as the financial crisis spreads to Main Street, McCain campaign co-chair and former senator Phil Gramm appeals to voters and their economic anxieties by calling them a "nation of whiners" and dismisses a troubled economy as a "mental recession." McCain denounces his words and Gramm steps down, but the damage is done.
21 Bill Miller's bad bets
The Legg Mason manager famously beat the market 15 years in a row, but now the market is returning the favor - with a vengeance. Miller's Legg Mason Value Trust was down 59% this year through Dec. 2, posting a far worse showing than the S&P 500, which was down "only" 38%. Miller's problems stem mostly from big bets on beaten-down financial companies earlier this year, many of which then got even more beaten down. Among the biggest losers for Miller were Bear Stearns, AIG and Freddie Mac - in which Miller had amassed an 8% stake on the eve of its government takeover in September.
Monday, 29 December 2008
Wednesday, 24 December 2008
Hope - breakfast? Or supper?
Greetings,
It's the time of the year that I try to recall notable events of the past 12 months, goor or bad and how we've responded to them as a race and add my own take to these events.
We're nearing the end of another year, one precipitated by turmoil in so many areas of our lives that we begin to wonder what we did wrong. Two decades ago, we welcomed the end of the Cold War and hailed the fall of the Berlin wall as victory of democracy and capitalism over communism. “It made the most sense,” we all said. Capitalism is the reason we're stuck in mud today. No, make that quicksand.
Early in the year, I watched “Juno” on the plane and later learned that it won several awards. It also won several followers and it suddenly became fashionable for teens to become pregnant, most notably Bristol Palin and Jaime Lynn Spears, whose sister was her role model. The sister lost custody of her 2 kids to her ex-husabnd this year because she was judged unable to take care of even herself.
Still on celebrities, I was teaching my son on electricity and we discussed the workings of a light bulb. As encouragement for his independence, I asked him to google Thomas Alva Edison and do some research. Big mistake -- a different Edison showed up, more popular than the inventor of the light bulb and a thousand other stuff. Why would people keep naked pictures of themselves and others as collection?
A number of celebrities left us this year. The earliest movie I can recall watching was Ben Hur starred by Charlton Heston. And many mourned the passing of Paul Newman. In Singapore, the original Mr Opposition, JBJ left behind an idelible legacy of his brand of politics, fighting until almost his last day.
Earlier on, we were captured by the tenacity of Randy Pausch, who literally delivered the “last lecture” as faculty of Carnegie Mellon. Following that great fight against his terminal illness was the profound message of living his childhood dreams -- you must want it badly enough. His lecture was all over YouTube and many social network sites. Go watch and be amazed and learn.
Some deaths are fated, some masterminded. Simultaneous attacks in Mumbai reminded us the threat of terror recognises no limit, individual, geography or timing. A reminder that Singaporeans will scarcely forget when thousands of hours were spent on trying to find and recapture a wayward detainee who purportedly went to take a leak. For someone who drives to Malaysia frequently, I've been fingerprinted more times than a petty thief. “Selamat Datang Ke Malaysia” now has a new meaning.
We cringed while waiting to see what sort of havoc Ike and Gustav will wreak, it was a fortunate outcome. But in Myanmar, Nargis destroyed everything. Then came heartbreak in Sichuan for a country readying herself for the Olympics. As in most disasters, heroes emerged from the China earthquake. It shows the resilience of the human spirit and the grace of God working together.
Beijing Olympics marked many firsts -- Michael Phelps broke Mark Spitz's record haul, the opening ceremony captured 5,000 years of history in one presentation, China showed the world how well they have been practising with gunpowder since they invented it. Today, we can hardly remember who took the 100m sprint silver or who was third in 10m diving or who fell badly from the “horse”. That's what the Olympics has been reduced to.
This year can also be known as the year of water-shed elections. Notably in Malaysia and Thailand, stranger things could not have happened. While Thailand just elected her fifth PM in 6 months, Malaysia is reeling from internet-driven awakening that removed the ruling coalition's 2/3 majority in the Mar 8 elections. The soap opera didn't end there as Anwar Ibrahim resurrected his political fortunes and one RPK was detained without trial, all around one murdered Mongolian lady. But those in Zimbabwe will think all these are child's play. Good ol' Robert.
But the biggest milestone of them all is the election of an African American to the highest office of USA, by default the most powerful position on earth. While Americans wait to shoo Obama into Amercian history, Bush ducked a farewell shoe into ignominity. Based on the former's acceptance speech, I'm keenly awaiting his inaugration speech early next year. Yes we can, boleh?
Like a dark storm cloud threatening to rain all of last year, financial turmoil poured and devastated everything and everywhere. Perhaps it's God's way of redistributing economic power and with it, real power. $1.2tr of US's bonds are owned by 2 Asian countries, the Arabs rejoiced when oil reached $147.27 a barrel, then on Sep 29, Dow tanked 8.8% - biggest ever single day drop. The Feds responded with a rate cut down to 0.25%.
Familiar names became fish bait -- Lehman Brothers are no more, Merill Lynch now belong to Bank of America. Bear Sterns were swallowed whole. Then the worms began crawling out of the woodworks. When Nick Leeson bled Barings of $1.4b, it was big news a decade ago. Societe Generale's $7b rogue trade made him look like pussy-cat. Then came grand-daddy Bernard Madoff's $50b fraud. I guess I've seen everything now.
In the thick of all these, scientists tried to replicate the birth of the universe by building the LHC (large hadron collider). It took 20 years and $10b and gave fears that we might create a black hole on earth with catastrophic consequences. Thanks to faulty magnets, the machine was shut down until next year. God was not about to reveal certain parts of history, not yet.
Personally, the year was a big milestone for me too.... I parted from the only company I worked for and the ensuing freedom was initially unsettling. But it worked out fine, only to show that when you know that Someone is in charge, let Him be in charge; things will work out. So in spite of what is happening, I want to bring a message of hope. Francis Bacon said that hope is a good breakfast but a bad supper.
Well, it's an attitude thing and it's your lifestyle too. Where do you place your faith? Yourself? The World? We've let ourselves down many times, so has the world. Won't you try something different this time? Over 2,000 years ago, Hope was sent to us and we ignored, rejected and persecuted Him. The gracious Hope still waits for us today. “.... but you received the Spirit of sonship. And by him we cry, Abba, Father.” Romans 8:15b
As I walk off in a new direction, I look not at paths before me that I should take but rather I would choose to create a trail that others could follow. Is it my time already? Have a hopeful Christmas and a blessed New Year.
the quiXote
It's the time of the year that I try to recall notable events of the past 12 months, goor or bad and how we've responded to them as a race and add my own take to these events.
We're nearing the end of another year, one precipitated by turmoil in so many areas of our lives that we begin to wonder what we did wrong. Two decades ago, we welcomed the end of the Cold War and hailed the fall of the Berlin wall as victory of democracy and capitalism over communism. “It made the most sense,” we all said. Capitalism is the reason we're stuck in mud today. No, make that quicksand.
Early in the year, I watched “Juno” on the plane and later learned that it won several awards. It also won several followers and it suddenly became fashionable for teens to become pregnant, most notably Bristol Palin and Jaime Lynn Spears, whose sister was her role model. The sister lost custody of her 2 kids to her ex-husabnd this year because she was judged unable to take care of even herself.
Still on celebrities, I was teaching my son on electricity and we discussed the workings of a light bulb. As encouragement for his independence, I asked him to google Thomas Alva Edison and do some research. Big mistake -- a different Edison showed up, more popular than the inventor of the light bulb and a thousand other stuff. Why would people keep naked pictures of themselves and others as collection?
A number of celebrities left us this year. The earliest movie I can recall watching was Ben Hur starred by Charlton Heston. And many mourned the passing of Paul Newman. In Singapore, the original Mr Opposition, JBJ left behind an idelible legacy of his brand of politics, fighting until almost his last day.
Earlier on, we were captured by the tenacity of Randy Pausch, who literally delivered the “last lecture” as faculty of Carnegie Mellon. Following that great fight against his terminal illness was the profound message of living his childhood dreams -- you must want it badly enough. His lecture was all over YouTube and many social network sites. Go watch and be amazed and learn.
Some deaths are fated, some masterminded. Simultaneous attacks in Mumbai reminded us the threat of terror recognises no limit, individual, geography or timing. A reminder that Singaporeans will scarcely forget when thousands of hours were spent on trying to find and recapture a wayward detainee who purportedly went to take a leak. For someone who drives to Malaysia frequently, I've been fingerprinted more times than a petty thief. “Selamat Datang Ke Malaysia” now has a new meaning.
We cringed while waiting to see what sort of havoc Ike and Gustav will wreak, it was a fortunate outcome. But in Myanmar, Nargis destroyed everything. Then came heartbreak in Sichuan for a country readying herself for the Olympics. As in most disasters, heroes emerged from the China earthquake. It shows the resilience of the human spirit and the grace of God working together.
Beijing Olympics marked many firsts -- Michael Phelps broke Mark Spitz's record haul, the opening ceremony captured 5,000 years of history in one presentation, China showed the world how well they have been practising with gunpowder since they invented it. Today, we can hardly remember who took the 100m sprint silver or who was third in 10m diving or who fell badly from the “horse”. That's what the Olympics has been reduced to.
This year can also be known as the year of water-shed elections. Notably in Malaysia and Thailand, stranger things could not have happened. While Thailand just elected her fifth PM in 6 months, Malaysia is reeling from internet-driven awakening that removed the ruling coalition's 2/3 majority in the Mar 8 elections. The soap opera didn't end there as Anwar Ibrahim resurrected his political fortunes and one RPK was detained without trial, all around one murdered Mongolian lady. But those in Zimbabwe will think all these are child's play. Good ol' Robert.
But the biggest milestone of them all is the election of an African American to the highest office of USA, by default the most powerful position on earth. While Americans wait to shoo Obama into Amercian history, Bush ducked a farewell shoe into ignominity. Based on the former's acceptance speech, I'm keenly awaiting his inaugration speech early next year. Yes we can, boleh?
Like a dark storm cloud threatening to rain all of last year, financial turmoil poured and devastated everything and everywhere. Perhaps it's God's way of redistributing economic power and with it, real power. $1.2tr of US's bonds are owned by 2 Asian countries, the Arabs rejoiced when oil reached $147.27 a barrel, then on Sep 29, Dow tanked 8.8% - biggest ever single day drop. The Feds responded with a rate cut down to 0.25%.
Familiar names became fish bait -- Lehman Brothers are no more, Merill Lynch now belong to Bank of America. Bear Sterns were swallowed whole. Then the worms began crawling out of the woodworks. When Nick Leeson bled Barings of $1.4b, it was big news a decade ago. Societe Generale's $7b rogue trade made him look like pussy-cat. Then came grand-daddy Bernard Madoff's $50b fraud. I guess I've seen everything now.
In the thick of all these, scientists tried to replicate the birth of the universe by building the LHC (large hadron collider). It took 20 years and $10b and gave fears that we might create a black hole on earth with catastrophic consequences. Thanks to faulty magnets, the machine was shut down until next year. God was not about to reveal certain parts of history, not yet.
Personally, the year was a big milestone for me too.... I parted from the only company I worked for and the ensuing freedom was initially unsettling. But it worked out fine, only to show that when you know that Someone is in charge, let Him be in charge; things will work out. So in spite of what is happening, I want to bring a message of hope. Francis Bacon said that hope is a good breakfast but a bad supper.
Well, it's an attitude thing and it's your lifestyle too. Where do you place your faith? Yourself? The World? We've let ourselves down many times, so has the world. Won't you try something different this time? Over 2,000 years ago, Hope was sent to us and we ignored, rejected and persecuted Him. The gracious Hope still waits for us today. “.... but you received the Spirit of sonship. And by him we cry, Abba, Father.” Romans 8:15b
As I walk off in a new direction, I look not at paths before me that I should take but rather I would choose to create a trail that others could follow. Is it my time already? Have a hopeful Christmas and a blessed New Year.
the quiXote
Wednesday, 17 December 2008
Don't Sell This Stock. Ever.
Don't Sell This Stock. Ever.
By Nick Kapur November 16, 2008 The Motley Fool
Legendary investor Philip Fisher bought a little radio company called Motorola in 1955 and pioneered a revolution. The guy did his homework, exercised a good deal of discipline, and found himself with a stock that multiplied many, many times -- all while sitting on his butt. Sounds pretty nice, eh?
In today's volatile and troubled market, taking your hands off the wheel is probably the last thing you want to do. And just like you, I fight that same fear. But we're looking at a historically discounted market. And that's precisely why right now is the best time to find a great company, invest in it, and then sit on your butt -- instead of fretting, trading, and losing sleep.
Good story, but how? I've written before about the decision to chuck your stocks into the wastebasket. But that advice may not be entirely helpful -- what you really need is to avoid the kinds of stocks that put you in that situation in the first place. After all, if you're in a situation where you have to sell a stock because it has problems, it's too late. To get around that problem, you need to get to know a man buried in an obscure cemetery in the Kreuzberg section of Berlin, Germany.
Man muss invertiren, immer invertiren
In case your German is a bit rusty, the expression translates to "One must invert, always invert." It's credited to the mathematician Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobi, who taught us to make a habit of reversing difficult equations to arrive at the solutions behind them. Let's take Jacobi's idea and apply it to our current situation.
Instead of thinking about when to sell, perhaps the more intelligent question to ask is the inverted one: When should we never sell? The answer leads us to the "sit on your butt" philosophy that has worked so well for many of history's finest investors. If we can identify a few businesses that investors should have never sold, we can work backward to extract a few salient characteristics and then use them in our search for the next never-sell investment.
History's lessons
Case No. 1: Berkshire Hathaway
Overall return, 1964-2007: 400,863%
Lesson: Top-flight management
Of all of the advantages that Berkshire Hathaway has going for it, the most important begins with two men: Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Without them, Berkshire would probably be a now-defunct textile mill. Instead, the pair have made prescient investments into long-lasting businesses like Proctor and Gamble -- that have paid off handsomely. Managers needn't be Buffett-like, either, to be great. I think Jim Senegal of Costco is a great example of a unique leader that has built a fantastic business over the years. Investors should absolutely demand fantastic management.
Case No. 2: Altria
Return, 1970-present (including dividends): 103,800%
Lesson: Undeniable consumer-facing trends
Regardless of how you feel about Big Tobacco, you have to admit that Altria is so successful because it runs a business built on a fundamentally consumer-driven -- and highly addictive -- product. Plenty of other great companies display similar characteristics -- for example, Dell was well prepared 15 years ago to serve a generation demanding personal computing solutions; meanwhile, today, Research In Motion is creating means by which these same people can be completely mobile. As investors, we definitely want a business that appeals to consumers' most basic interests and can benefit from that tailwind.
Case No. 3: IBM
Return, 1962-present (including dividends): 2,832%
Lesson: Agility
Not all companies need to innovate to be great, but the vast majority need to be able to read the market, react, and be ahead of long-term trends. Having been many different things over the course of its life, IBM definitely has an ability to adapt going for it; I'd venture to say that Apple displays a similar ability. Let's invest with companies that can zig and zag, when others have cement feet.
Case No. 4: Microsoft
Return since going public in 1986: 26,463%
Lesson: Scalability
We want businesses that can take on new customers without needing to seriously build out their existing operations. Microsoft is a perfect example. Reinvestment is costly -- so, identify businesses that don't require much of it to ramp up the top line.
If you combine these four qualities and find even a few stocks that fit the mold, you're probably onto something seriously good. I'd argue it's most likely a company to buy early, buy often, and never sell.
So what now?
We can do two things with this information:
1 Use it as a further tool to understand what stocks we need to sell now. (Talk about inverting!)
2 Use these principles to buy stocks that we'll never, ever need to sell. That's where sitting on our butts comes in.
It's not mere coincidence that most of the world's best investments fall within one of these four categories (many of them share more than one). Nor is it a coincidence that great investors constantly search for these combinations -- as you should, too, especially in these turbulent markets.
By Nick Kapur November 16, 2008 The Motley Fool
Legendary investor Philip Fisher bought a little radio company called Motorola in 1955 and pioneered a revolution. The guy did his homework, exercised a good deal of discipline, and found himself with a stock that multiplied many, many times -- all while sitting on his butt. Sounds pretty nice, eh?
In today's volatile and troubled market, taking your hands off the wheel is probably the last thing you want to do. And just like you, I fight that same fear. But we're looking at a historically discounted market. And that's precisely why right now is the best time to find a great company, invest in it, and then sit on your butt -- instead of fretting, trading, and losing sleep.
Good story, but how? I've written before about the decision to chuck your stocks into the wastebasket. But that advice may not be entirely helpful -- what you really need is to avoid the kinds of stocks that put you in that situation in the first place. After all, if you're in a situation where you have to sell a stock because it has problems, it's too late. To get around that problem, you need to get to know a man buried in an obscure cemetery in the Kreuzberg section of Berlin, Germany.
Man muss invertiren, immer invertiren
In case your German is a bit rusty, the expression translates to "One must invert, always invert." It's credited to the mathematician Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobi, who taught us to make a habit of reversing difficult equations to arrive at the solutions behind them. Let's take Jacobi's idea and apply it to our current situation.
Instead of thinking about when to sell, perhaps the more intelligent question to ask is the inverted one: When should we never sell? The answer leads us to the "sit on your butt" philosophy that has worked so well for many of history's finest investors. If we can identify a few businesses that investors should have never sold, we can work backward to extract a few salient characteristics and then use them in our search for the next never-sell investment.
History's lessons
Case No. 1: Berkshire Hathaway
Overall return, 1964-2007: 400,863%
Lesson: Top-flight management
Of all of the advantages that Berkshire Hathaway has going for it, the most important begins with two men: Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Without them, Berkshire would probably be a now-defunct textile mill. Instead, the pair have made prescient investments into long-lasting businesses like Proctor and Gamble -- that have paid off handsomely. Managers needn't be Buffett-like, either, to be great. I think Jim Senegal of Costco is a great example of a unique leader that has built a fantastic business over the years. Investors should absolutely demand fantastic management.
Case No. 2: Altria
Return, 1970-present (including dividends): 103,800%
Lesson: Undeniable consumer-facing trends
Regardless of how you feel about Big Tobacco, you have to admit that Altria is so successful because it runs a business built on a fundamentally consumer-driven -- and highly addictive -- product. Plenty of other great companies display similar characteristics -- for example, Dell was well prepared 15 years ago to serve a generation demanding personal computing solutions; meanwhile, today, Research In Motion is creating means by which these same people can be completely mobile. As investors, we definitely want a business that appeals to consumers' most basic interests and can benefit from that tailwind.
Case No. 3: IBM
Return, 1962-present (including dividends): 2,832%
Lesson: Agility
Not all companies need to innovate to be great, but the vast majority need to be able to read the market, react, and be ahead of long-term trends. Having been many different things over the course of its life, IBM definitely has an ability to adapt going for it; I'd venture to say that Apple displays a similar ability. Let's invest with companies that can zig and zag, when others have cement feet.
Case No. 4: Microsoft
Return since going public in 1986: 26,463%
Lesson: Scalability
We want businesses that can take on new customers without needing to seriously build out their existing operations. Microsoft is a perfect example. Reinvestment is costly -- so, identify businesses that don't require much of it to ramp up the top line.
If you combine these four qualities and find even a few stocks that fit the mold, you're probably onto something seriously good. I'd argue it's most likely a company to buy early, buy often, and never sell.
So what now?
We can do two things with this information:
1 Use it as a further tool to understand what stocks we need to sell now. (Talk about inverting!)
2 Use these principles to buy stocks that we'll never, ever need to sell. That's where sitting on our butts comes in.
It's not mere coincidence that most of the world's best investments fall within one of these four categories (many of them share more than one). Nor is it a coincidence that great investors constantly search for these combinations -- as you should, too, especially in these turbulent markets.
Motorola to freeze pension plans, cut exec pay
Motorola to freeze pension plans, cut executive pay, stop 401(k) matching plans
Wednesday December 17, 2008, 11:33 am EST
SCHAUMBURG, Ill. (AP) -- Motorola Inc., which has been struggling to revive its business in recent years, is freezing its pension plans and reducing executive pay in another set of cost-cutting measures. The company, which blamed the recession for the moves disclosed Wednesday, will permanently freeze its U.S. pension plans, temporarily suspend matching 401(k) contributions and reduce the base salary of its two co-chief executives. Motorola had already announced an $800 million cost-saving plan in October, but spokeswoman Jennifer Erickson would not elaborate on how much additional money the company expects to save with the latest steps.
Motorola plans to freeze the salaries of an unspecified number of other employees in many of its markets in 2009. Erickson said the company will raise salaries in countries where it is "legally required or a competitive necessity; however, in most cases, these increases will be below 2008 levels." She did not specify the countries or how many employees would be affected by the pay freeze.
Motorola earlier this fall said it will cut 3,000 jobs by April, with about 2,000 coming from its struggling cell phone unit, as part of the $800 million cost-reduction plan.
Now Motorola says Co-CEOs Greg Brown and Sanjay Jha will take a 25 percent cut in their base salary of $1.2 million in 2009. Brown will also forgo any 2008 cash bonus earned under the company's incentive plan. For Jha, whose employment contract provides for a guaranteed cash bonus for 2008, the bonus will be voluntarily reduced and the rest taken as restricted stock units. Motorola said it is taking these measures to address the global economic turmoil. But the company has been under pressure to follow the runaway success of its Razr cell phone, which came out in 2005.
Earlier this year, the company announced plans to separate its struggling handset business from other operations, forming two separate, publicly traded companies. But in October Motorola said it will postpone the spinoff, citing the economic downturn and the financial market turmoil. Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Matthew Sheerin said the new cost-cutting announcements signal that things are getting worse for Motorola, and he called the lack of updated guidance "curious."
But he praised the company's efforts to reduce expenses and stay profitable despite the troubles in its mobile device unit, saying it's done an "admirable job." Motorola shares fell 10 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $4.31 in morning trading. The stock has lost nearly three-quarters of its value since the beginning of the year.
Wednesday December 17, 2008, 11:33 am EST
SCHAUMBURG, Ill. (AP) -- Motorola Inc., which has been struggling to revive its business in recent years, is freezing its pension plans and reducing executive pay in another set of cost-cutting measures. The company, which blamed the recession for the moves disclosed Wednesday, will permanently freeze its U.S. pension plans, temporarily suspend matching 401(k) contributions and reduce the base salary of its two co-chief executives. Motorola had already announced an $800 million cost-saving plan in October, but spokeswoman Jennifer Erickson would not elaborate on how much additional money the company expects to save with the latest steps.
Motorola plans to freeze the salaries of an unspecified number of other employees in many of its markets in 2009. Erickson said the company will raise salaries in countries where it is "legally required or a competitive necessity; however, in most cases, these increases will be below 2008 levels." She did not specify the countries or how many employees would be affected by the pay freeze.
Motorola earlier this fall said it will cut 3,000 jobs by April, with about 2,000 coming from its struggling cell phone unit, as part of the $800 million cost-reduction plan.
Now Motorola says Co-CEOs Greg Brown and Sanjay Jha will take a 25 percent cut in their base salary of $1.2 million in 2009. Brown will also forgo any 2008 cash bonus earned under the company's incentive plan. For Jha, whose employment contract provides for a guaranteed cash bonus for 2008, the bonus will be voluntarily reduced and the rest taken as restricted stock units. Motorola said it is taking these measures to address the global economic turmoil. But the company has been under pressure to follow the runaway success of its Razr cell phone, which came out in 2005.
Earlier this year, the company announced plans to separate its struggling handset business from other operations, forming two separate, publicly traded companies. But in October Motorola said it will postpone the spinoff, citing the economic downturn and the financial market turmoil. Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Matthew Sheerin said the new cost-cutting announcements signal that things are getting worse for Motorola, and he called the lack of updated guidance "curious."
But he praised the company's efforts to reduce expenses and stay profitable despite the troubles in its mobile device unit, saying it's done an "admirable job." Motorola shares fell 10 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $4.31 in morning trading. The stock has lost nearly three-quarters of its value since the beginning of the year.
Thursday, 4 December 2008
Interesting mathematics
Let's say the cost of producing electricity, A, is dependent upon only oil price and other non-fuel factors. And let's call them X and Y respectively. The Energy Market Authority announced that fuel price has come down by 40% and so next quarter, Singaporeans will pay 25% less for electricity. If my primary math serves me well (it better, my son is in primary school!):
X reduces by 40% while Y stays the same, so X + Y = A comes down by 25%
Then 40% of X = 25% of A or simply put, A = 1.6 X
We can now substitute some numbers (for the mathematically-challenged!)
If X = 100, then A = 160 and so Y is 60
Do you believe that operational cost (non-fuel factors) can command 60/160 or 37.5% of the electrical tarrif that you pay? If that were so, power producers will be happy for higher fuel prices as that will mask their operational costs. Now try using X = 60 since it has dropped 40%. Y stays at 60 and A now becomes 120 (25% drop). Now operational cost of 60/120 is a good 50%!
I wonder what was the % when oil price was at $25?
X reduces by 40% while Y stays the same, so X + Y = A comes down by 25%
Then 40% of X = 25% of A or simply put, A = 1.6 X
We can now substitute some numbers (for the mathematically-challenged!)
If X = 100, then A = 160 and so Y is 60
Do you believe that operational cost (non-fuel factors) can command 60/160 or 37.5% of the electrical tarrif that you pay? If that were so, power producers will be happy for higher fuel prices as that will mask their operational costs. Now try using X = 60 since it has dropped 40%. Y stays at 60 and A now becomes 120 (25% drop). Now operational cost of 60/120 is a good 50%!
I wonder what was the % when oil price was at $25?
Sad decline of a legend?
A story was told of a Japanese lad who read about a faraway land of opportunities and later brought his wife there for their honeymoon. There he saw an "iron horse" for the first time and quickly learned how it worked and how to take it apart and put it back together. He bought one and tried to check it in at Los Angeles airport. He was refused. He threw away his clothes, tore the bicycle apart and crammed all the pieces into his suitcase. Everyone at the airport laughed at him.
Pretty soon they laughed no more; the boy's name was Soichiro Honda. From mini moped to big bikes to velocious vehicles, they lived up to the "Power of Dreams".
Yesterday, Honda projected a dramatic drop in sales for 2009 and that they will be cutting back on production, and their stocks took a hit (so did the Nikkei). Today they are about to announce that Jenson Button and Reubens Barrichello will not be driving any F1 car next year. For a tier 1 car manufacturer, that is almost sacrilegious. Oh, how quickly the mighty has fallen.
It reminds me of another giant I am familiar with, whose decline was so quick I wondered how could anything have gone so horribly wrong. While packing last night, I stumbled upon a magazine-like book, "1995 Worldwide TCS Orlando, Florida". I thumbed through the pages reminiscently as I saw myself in an Indian garb and my friends in Thai, Vietnamese, Indonesian gears - the world was at our feet, there was no problem too big and Mickey Mouse was beside us.
Well, it's time to move on....
Pretty soon they laughed no more; the boy's name was Soichiro Honda. From mini moped to big bikes to velocious vehicles, they lived up to the "Power of Dreams".
Yesterday, Honda projected a dramatic drop in sales for 2009 and that they will be cutting back on production, and their stocks took a hit (so did the Nikkei). Today they are about to announce that Jenson Button and Reubens Barrichello will not be driving any F1 car next year. For a tier 1 car manufacturer, that is almost sacrilegious. Oh, how quickly the mighty has fallen.
It reminds me of another giant I am familiar with, whose decline was so quick I wondered how could anything have gone so horribly wrong. While packing last night, I stumbled upon a magazine-like book, "1995 Worldwide TCS Orlando, Florida". I thumbed through the pages reminiscently as I saw myself in an Indian garb and my friends in Thai, Vietnamese, Indonesian gears - the world was at our feet, there was no problem too big and Mickey Mouse was beside us.
Well, it's time to move on....
Much ado over US$4,700
Granted that in current times money is significant but this is for one of the highest positions in the country! Hillary Clinton may not get to be Secretary of State - just because President Bush signed the salary increase of that position while she was in office as senator. The intent of the constitution is to prevent anyone in position of power to lobby to fatten up a post before he or she takes it later.
In some countries, people in power publicly voted and approved the increases of their own salaries. Democracy has been around for a long time and so has capitalism and in most cases, the demarcation has blurred. I've always wondered why the English language has 2 words that mean the same thing - isn't that a waste of vocabulary? How would I answer my son if he asked?
True that the American way is not necessarily applicable to other countries but the basic tenets of democracy such as transparency, justice and freedom must exist for countries which claim to be democratic, otherwise the claim is a hollow one. Zimbabwe had elections, so it is democratic? Why would people riot and cause civil unrest - because they are bad people or were they manipulated?
Thailand had elections. They elected the parties and the parties elected a Prime Minister - onto a musical chair! They gave Darwinism a new image and 5 PMs later, they are still at it. No future visitors, no future moolah, no future economy. Now THAT is making a statement. Visions of Bangkok being a fashion centre for Asia and healing tourism hub of the region, now suffer from astigmatism.
Somehow, now that I'm spending more time listening to live feed than reading off the web, I begin to compare with policies and operations familiar to me.... and it is getting interesting. You should spend a whole day just watching the news as it develops, trust me, it's not boring!
In some countries, people in power publicly voted and approved the increases of their own salaries. Democracy has been around for a long time and so has capitalism and in most cases, the demarcation has blurred. I've always wondered why the English language has 2 words that mean the same thing - isn't that a waste of vocabulary? How would I answer my son if he asked?
True that the American way is not necessarily applicable to other countries but the basic tenets of democracy such as transparency, justice and freedom must exist for countries which claim to be democratic, otherwise the claim is a hollow one. Zimbabwe had elections, so it is democratic? Why would people riot and cause civil unrest - because they are bad people or were they manipulated?
Thailand had elections. They elected the parties and the parties elected a Prime Minister - onto a musical chair! They gave Darwinism a new image and 5 PMs later, they are still at it. No future visitors, no future moolah, no future economy. Now THAT is making a statement. Visions of Bangkok being a fashion centre for Asia and healing tourism hub of the region, now suffer from astigmatism.
Somehow, now that I'm spending more time listening to live feed than reading off the web, I begin to compare with policies and operations familiar to me.... and it is getting interesting. You should spend a whole day just watching the news as it develops, trust me, it's not boring!
Tuesday, 2 December 2008
Alphabet soup
Now that we've settled the dispute (if you're wondering, the dispute is whether the US is in a technical recession), let's accept that Singapore is in a recession as well. Rather than go through the reasons, we can discuss the ways the economy can recover - it's more optimistic and allows some fantasising. Lately, I've heard many alphabets thrown into the ring to describe the situation and you can wonder at some of them:
One analyst mentioned an F-shaped while MM at a Clinton event said that it will not be a V-shaped recovery but he's not saying it will be U-shaped either. An economist suggested today it will be W-shaped since there is little to support recovery at this stage. Someone from OCBC volunteered L-shaped! I can't spell anything with these letters so let's return to basics. If you love crunching numbers, read this, which is the appendix section of the MAS review.
It has numbers and trends that will make you sit up and perhaps concoct your own alphabet - roman, greek or martian :-)
Reading tables 13 and 15 together, you can understand what must happen for recovery:
1 Tax revenue is coming down - less income to tax, less GST with reduced consumption, so non-tax revenue has to go up. These are your fees and fines.
2 Contributions from investment income are not going to be stellar since investment climate is in the toilet, so there will be even greater special transfers required.
This speaks of triple or quadruple whammy, so while W describes a double bottom, the only character I can think of that has triple or quadruple bottom is found in the arabic language.
On a more serious note, I do feel concerned that my being in the current state of flux is not getting me anywhere but where do I really want to go? I serve a greater Master and have faith in Him to lead me wherever I should go. Perhaps a good advice is what I heard from Suze Orman - doing nothing is better than buying something you don't know.
One analyst mentioned an F-shaped while MM at a Clinton event said that it will not be a V-shaped recovery but he's not saying it will be U-shaped either. An economist suggested today it will be W-shaped since there is little to support recovery at this stage. Someone from OCBC volunteered L-shaped! I can't spell anything with these letters so let's return to basics. If you love crunching numbers, read this, which is the appendix section of the MAS review.
It has numbers and trends that will make you sit up and perhaps concoct your own alphabet - roman, greek or martian :-)
Reading tables 13 and 15 together, you can understand what must happen for recovery:
1 Tax revenue is coming down - less income to tax, less GST with reduced consumption, so non-tax revenue has to go up. These are your fees and fines.
2 Contributions from investment income are not going to be stellar since investment climate is in the toilet, so there will be even greater special transfers required.
This speaks of triple or quadruple whammy, so while W describes a double bottom, the only character I can think of that has triple or quadruple bottom is found in the arabic language.
On a more serious note, I do feel concerned that my being in the current state of flux is not getting me anywhere but where do I really want to go? I serve a greater Master and have faith in Him to lead me wherever I should go. Perhaps a good advice is what I heard from Suze Orman - doing nothing is better than buying something you don't know.
Monday, 1 December 2008
Recession - here, near or mere fear?
A typical recession lasts anything between 18-24 months. With news finally out that the US economy was in recession since Dec 2007, the dejavu experience is like one who is sentenced to a couple of years in prison but with the sentence being back-dated to a year ago. So we have about 6 months to a year to go before we see the end of all these. Really?
If you observe historical recessionary cycles, there are a few trends you can pick out:
1 Each subsequent recession went deeper and further into the doldrums
2 Each recovery picked up at a faster rate and went beyond previous high
Notice that we've plunged below the benchmark 1932 Great Depression. A few weeks ago, I posted that Dow was at the basement when it dipped below 8,000 points albeit momentarily. All the stars seem aligned.
Newspaper reports have changed their tack quite a bit. They used to be harbinger of bad news, and only bad news - because that can be sensationalised. Nobody reports about a plane landing safely at the airport and skills of the pilot and crew should be applauded. Should one crash, it will be all over the front pages. Similarly, peaceful demonstration in Singapore is not so "newsy" compared to a few deaths at Bangkok sit-ins. Now we only read optimistic reports; few are inclined to batter the battered economy.
Last night, the Dow was waltzing close to the 8,000 mark again. It's time to take a good look at some undervalued stocks. Oh there are so many of those! I'd like to start exploring myself. Getting closer to home, the SGX hasn't been very much wayward from the Dow in typical Singapore fashion - we follow. We don't blaze a trail ourselves and be the maverick we can be.
Regardless of your opinion or mine, recession is definitely here. How the stock indices behave will just promote the perception or real condition. Recession is not near and is not mere fear. Be brave. Be very brave....
If you observe historical recessionary cycles, there are a few trends you can pick out:
1 Each subsequent recession went deeper and further into the doldrums
2 Each recovery picked up at a faster rate and went beyond previous high
Notice that we've plunged below the benchmark 1932 Great Depression. A few weeks ago, I posted that Dow was at the basement when it dipped below 8,000 points albeit momentarily. All the stars seem aligned.
Newspaper reports have changed their tack quite a bit. They used to be harbinger of bad news, and only bad news - because that can be sensationalised. Nobody reports about a plane landing safely at the airport and skills of the pilot and crew should be applauded. Should one crash, it will be all over the front pages. Similarly, peaceful demonstration in Singapore is not so "newsy" compared to a few deaths at Bangkok sit-ins. Now we only read optimistic reports; few are inclined to batter the battered economy.
Last night, the Dow was waltzing close to the 8,000 mark again. It's time to take a good look at some undervalued stocks. Oh there are so many of those! I'd like to start exploring myself. Getting closer to home, the SGX hasn't been very much wayward from the Dow in typical Singapore fashion - we follow. We don't blaze a trail ourselves and be the maverick we can be.
Regardless of your opinion or mine, recession is definitely here. How the stock indices behave will just promote the perception or real condition. Recession is not near and is not mere fear. Be brave. Be very brave....
A Fresh Start
I sat up on my bed this morning with a strange feeling. Strange that my mind does not have to work, save for my early morning prayers. I am indeed thankful for this opportunity to be able to contemplate my own thing in my own time. Well, it's time to enjoy my family and for them, me. I'm not sure this enthusiasm at home will last but I certainly plan to work on it all the way. There's just so much to catch up on.
Not that life is a breeze or there is absolutely nothing to do. There are emails to clear, including those that promise a rewarding future. There are meetings to attend, including those that will well compensate me for my time. There are commitments to meet, including those words I have to keep to help a couple of friends. And there are projects that I want to start and complete, that will make mine a better soul.
Here I come world!
For all that I have, I am and I will become, I thank God for His continuous grace and unwavering faithfulness. The Lord has made my paths straight for I leaned not on my own understanding but trusted Him with all my heart and acknowledged Him all the way [Prov 3:5-6].
Not that life is a breeze or there is absolutely nothing to do. There are emails to clear, including those that promise a rewarding future. There are meetings to attend, including those that will well compensate me for my time. There are commitments to meet, including those words I have to keep to help a couple of friends. And there are projects that I want to start and complete, that will make mine a better soul.
Here I come world!
For all that I have, I am and I will become, I thank God for His continuous grace and unwavering faithfulness. The Lord has made my paths straight for I leaned not on my own understanding but trusted Him with all my heart and acknowledged Him all the way [Prov 3:5-6].
Sunday, 30 November 2008
Cutting one's nose to spite one's face
Are you yellow or red? Careful, the answer can make a difference between life and death! As protestors continue to cripple the Thai economy with their airport and building sit-ins, occasional grenade blasts and other forms of civil disobedience, little do they realise (or perhaps care) that they are spreading terror in their own capital. Something Mumbai reminded us we do not need.
The Thais are incapable of spending enough on their own to resuscitate their flailing economy and by punishing the current government, they are rejecting foreign spendings in their country. It is a pity since some, if not all, of them do know the economy is heading south, a contagion effect from the US credit crunch. Still, they needed to "tell the government something".
Well, they may get what they wanted as the government may soon be left with nothing to govern. Who wants to be in charge when there is too faint hope for recovery? The powers that be may want to rethink what they are doing before it is all too late. Be careful of what you wish for - you may get it, and live to regret.
The Thais are incapable of spending enough on their own to resuscitate their flailing economy and by punishing the current government, they are rejecting foreign spendings in their country. It is a pity since some, if not all, of them do know the economy is heading south, a contagion effect from the US credit crunch. Still, they needed to "tell the government something".
Well, they may get what they wanted as the government may soon be left with nothing to govern. Who wants to be in charge when there is too faint hope for recovery? The powers that be may want to rethink what they are doing before it is all too late. Be careful of what you wish for - you may get it, and live to regret.
Thursday, 20 November 2008
Of tuxedos, soup queues and $1 salary
The guy walked up to me using his walking stick as a guide. He had a companion whom he hangs on to and who carries a stack of packets of tissue paper. He was obviously visually-impaired and he was hoping to raise funds from me with his tissue paper. I always gave... until one day I found him with a "boss" a block further away. I tailed this guy to his Lexus. The blind man's condition was being used to raise money as part of a syndicate.
I heard the American version on CNBC yesterday: People in tuxedos joining the soup line with a tin cup in hand - CEOs of GM, Ford and Chrysler. Congress gave it to them and refused bailout. When you fly to DC on private jet to ask for money to save your company, you simply don't get it. When AIG was granted bailout, the top brass had a strategic retreat on what to do with the money. It came with thousand dollar spas! Thanks to AIG, Congress gave auto CEOs the stick.
I remembered Apple was shedding jobs when Steve Jobs was recalled to the company he co-founded to turn it around. He stopped the retrenchment and asked for $1 annual salary. When Cisco had to cut cost post 911, John Chambers halved his 2002 pay as the first concrete action. These people have the moral authority to retrench staff or cut other people's expenses or ask for help. These people get it. So when they lead, people follow.
I heard the American version on CNBC yesterday: People in tuxedos joining the soup line with a tin cup in hand - CEOs of GM, Ford and Chrysler. Congress gave it to them and refused bailout. When you fly to DC on private jet to ask for money to save your company, you simply don't get it. When AIG was granted bailout, the top brass had a strategic retreat on what to do with the money. It came with thousand dollar spas! Thanks to AIG, Congress gave auto CEOs the stick.
I remembered Apple was shedding jobs when Steve Jobs was recalled to the company he co-founded to turn it around. He stopped the retrenchment and asked for $1 annual salary. When Cisco had to cut cost post 911, John Chambers halved his 2002 pay as the first concrete action. These people have the moral authority to retrench staff or cut other people's expenses or ask for help. These people get it. So when they lead, people follow.
New caper at the airport
I've heard of people pick pocketing at the airport. I've heard of others duped into picking up luggages that don't belong to them (and getting arrested for it). And I've heard of blue-jacking too.
You probably have heard of many similar things at the airport too. Here's a new piece of news for you on something that has been proven. So you road warriors, watch what you do at the airport or in the plane, free wi-fi can be costly.
Happy Travels
You probably have heard of many similar things at the airport too. Here's a new piece of news for you on something that has been proven. So you road warriors, watch what you do at the airport or in the plane, free wi-fi can be costly.
Happy Travels
Wednesday, 19 November 2008
Has DOW hit the bottom?
Well if I know the answer, I've told some of you before that I'd mortgage everything I own, borrow any amount I can, fork out all I have - and invest! Charts are just pretty pictures that tell us what has been. They don't tell us what will be. Just for kicks, below is the DJI trend since "beginning of time".
Even after accounting for time value of money (aka inflation), suddenly there's still a lot of "basement" left! So Mr Dow, how low will you go?
Let's go into the pillars of American economy, the source from which all things green flow. I believe they have accumulated several pillars over 23 decades: financial institutions and then at the turn of 20th century, real estate followed quickly by airlines. When John Kennedy was president, they added automotive. Since 911, airlines swiftly sank and has been struggling to raise its head again since. That leaves us with 3: finance, real estate and automotive.
Unless you've just returned from Mars after a 3-month vacation, we all know what happened to each of these 3, most recently, the automotive. Coincidentally, they all share something in common - the need for credit to survive. So today, the clock has been set back to 2003. Going further back will only mean we have to include the airline industry, which is a non-entity today.
I personally believe we are hovering close to the basement floor today but I'm not telling you to "mortgage everything you own, borrow any amount you can, fork out all you have". Use what you have between your ears.
$2 COE and beyond
The last time I recall a ludicrous COE price, it was $50. Somebody was trying his luck and as luck would have it, there were less bidders than COEs, so the certs went for a song. Yesterday's results of the November bidding exercise, showed an historic low of $2! 1,852 bids were received for a quota of 1,851..... It reminds me of the NBA where games were won or lost by the last attempt during overtime, something like 132-133!
Still, let's do some math - last month's COE for this category was priced at $12,577. This month's shortfall of $12,575 translates over 1,851 certs to some $23m less in the government's coffers, ouch! What will happen then? The typical Singaporean will say, "I want car!" Some will do their sums. Some won't and find out later that ERP, fuel, parking, road tax and insurance cost more than their monthly instalments. CapEx vs OpEx.
I have a good friend who doesn't use the highway and doesn't bother with ERP timings and charges. His reasoning is simple, why bother with something that changes all the time? I never remember my age; I tell people who ask what year I was born. If it is necessary to use the highway, he will pay regardless of the charge. Like some pre-paid phone card users - they know the per minute is expensive but they call during emergencies and don't care about the rate.
After my meandering, all I really want to say is: do expect change, especially discussed in my previous posting, there is a need to attack the deficit.
Still, let's do some math - last month's COE for this category was priced at $12,577. This month's shortfall of $12,575 translates over 1,851 certs to some $23m less in the government's coffers, ouch! What will happen then? The typical Singaporean will say, "I want car!" Some will do their sums. Some won't and find out later that ERP, fuel, parking, road tax and insurance cost more than their monthly instalments. CapEx vs OpEx.
I have a good friend who doesn't use the highway and doesn't bother with ERP timings and charges. His reasoning is simple, why bother with something that changes all the time? I never remember my age; I tell people who ask what year I was born. If it is necessary to use the highway, he will pay regardless of the charge. Like some pre-paid phone card users - they know the per minute is expensive but they call during emergencies and don't care about the rate.
After my meandering, all I really want to say is: do expect change, especially discussed in my previous posting, there is a need to attack the deficit.
Tuesday, 18 November 2008
S$2.5 billion poser
Channel News Asia reported the finance minister's comment that Singapore's FY08 budget deficit will swell to perhaps more than 3 times the S$800m estimated. So what are the implications?
We all know a deficit is when you spend more than you earn. We all know a deficit in Singapore must be fiercely addressed. It is logical, therefore, that the country now has to spend less or earn more or both.
The government can't morally spend less while encouraging the population to continue to spend (and spend more) to sustain the economy. We all (sorry, maybe some of us) know how the country earns.
The government can't morally increase the tax rates while announcing efforts to reduce them. But apart from taxation, the government has other avenues to earn. So do expect your fees to increase and what you have taken for granted in the past to be charged.
There is some S$2.5 billion to be addressed, at least.
We all know a deficit is when you spend more than you earn. We all know a deficit in Singapore must be fiercely addressed. It is logical, therefore, that the country now has to spend less or earn more or both.
The government can't morally spend less while encouraging the population to continue to spend (and spend more) to sustain the economy. We all (sorry, maybe some of us) know how the country earns.
The government can't morally increase the tax rates while announcing efforts to reduce them. But apart from taxation, the government has other avenues to earn. So do expect your fees to increase and what you have taken for granted in the past to be charged.
There is some S$2.5 billion to be addressed, at least.
Saturday, 15 November 2008
Nokia's warning or prophecy?
Nokia warns mobile-device sales will fall next year
Forecast that consumers will forgo new purchases roils wireless stocks
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch Last update: 12:56 p.m. EST Nov. 14, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Nokia Corp., the world's top mobile-phone maker, warned Friday that sales for the handset industry as a whole will fall next year as consumers pull back in the face of slumping economic conditions and limited credit availability. Nokia projected that fourth-quarter industry volumes will be roughly 20 million phones fewer than previously expected and that 2009 volumes will be lower than the 1.24 billion units it's forecast for this year.
"The company sees [2009] volumes down year-on-year. We had expected negative 1%, but considering Nokia is usually conservative in its guidance, the outlook could be some negative 5%," said analysts at Deutsche Bank. Nokia shares fell 6% in Helsinki, while the company's U.S.-listed shares surrendered nearly 14% as they touched a 52-week low of $12.22. Shares of Motorola Inc. also suffered, down 9%.
The warning is the latest to hit the high-tech sector. Over the past couple of weeks, industry bellwethers such as Intel have cut down their forecasts in the face of the slowing economy. On Friday, Sun Microsystems announced plans to lay off as many as 6,000 workers to cope with the slowdown. Nokia said that, in the last few weeks, the global economic slowdown, combined with unprecedented currency volatility, has resulted in consumers pulling back sharply on their spending.
The market for mobile devices "has also been negatively impacted by the more limited availability of credit, which has limited the purchasing ability of some of our trade customers," the Finnish company added. Nokia still expects market share in the fourth quarter to be at or slightly above third-quarter levels but warned sales and profit in its devices and services unit will be negatively impacted. The telecom-equipment industry wasn't spared either, with Nokia Siemens Networks forecasting both the mobile- and fixed-infrastructure markets will be down in euro terms next year. Nokia Siemens is the 50-50 equipment venture between Nokia and Germany's Siemens.
Western markets at the center of the storm
Developed markets have been most affected by the curb in spending, while emerging markets have held up better, Richard Simonson, Nokia's chief financial officer, said, "The same fundamentals are in place for 2009," he added. Simonson emphasized that the problems are being felt across the wireless industry and aren't confined to Nokia alone. "This is a market issue. This is broad-based and consumer-led," he said.
Currency fluctuations have an impact as well, he noted, as purchasing power fell in markets where there has been a sharp deterioration against the U.S. dollar. Against a backdrop of these challenging business conditions, Nokia said it's going to "significantly" reduce its cost base, curtailing the use of external contractors, consultants and professional services and cutting operating expenses. Carolina Milanesi, research director in the wireless and mobile-devices practice of technology specialists Gartner, said it's important to focus on the bigger picture rather than the specific numbers being floated.
"Whether the mobile-phone market contracts 2% or 4% next year is not the main issue, because it is in any case a far cry from the growth rates the industry had grown accustomed to," she noted. What is in danger now, she said, as operators put the latest phones on sale at bargain prices when tied to long contracts, is the whole notion that consumers will keep upgrading their handsets and will be willing to pay 400 euros for a device. "Will there be a way of going back to that once the economy recovers or do you kill that notion forever?" she asked.
Forecast that consumers will forgo new purchases roils wireless stocks
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch Last update: 12:56 p.m. EST Nov. 14, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Nokia Corp., the world's top mobile-phone maker, warned Friday that sales for the handset industry as a whole will fall next year as consumers pull back in the face of slumping economic conditions and limited credit availability. Nokia projected that fourth-quarter industry volumes will be roughly 20 million phones fewer than previously expected and that 2009 volumes will be lower than the 1.24 billion units it's forecast for this year.
"The company sees [2009] volumes down year-on-year. We had expected negative 1%, but considering Nokia is usually conservative in its guidance, the outlook could be some negative 5%," said analysts at Deutsche Bank. Nokia shares fell 6% in Helsinki, while the company's U.S.-listed shares surrendered nearly 14% as they touched a 52-week low of $12.22. Shares of Motorola Inc. also suffered, down 9%.
The warning is the latest to hit the high-tech sector. Over the past couple of weeks, industry bellwethers such as Intel have cut down their forecasts in the face of the slowing economy. On Friday, Sun Microsystems announced plans to lay off as many as 6,000 workers to cope with the slowdown. Nokia said that, in the last few weeks, the global economic slowdown, combined with unprecedented currency volatility, has resulted in consumers pulling back sharply on their spending.
The market for mobile devices "has also been negatively impacted by the more limited availability of credit, which has limited the purchasing ability of some of our trade customers," the Finnish company added. Nokia still expects market share in the fourth quarter to be at or slightly above third-quarter levels but warned sales and profit in its devices and services unit will be negatively impacted. The telecom-equipment industry wasn't spared either, with Nokia Siemens Networks forecasting both the mobile- and fixed-infrastructure markets will be down in euro terms next year. Nokia Siemens is the 50-50 equipment venture between Nokia and Germany's Siemens.
Western markets at the center of the storm
Developed markets have been most affected by the curb in spending, while emerging markets have held up better, Richard Simonson, Nokia's chief financial officer, said, "The same fundamentals are in place for 2009," he added. Simonson emphasized that the problems are being felt across the wireless industry and aren't confined to Nokia alone. "This is a market issue. This is broad-based and consumer-led," he said.
Currency fluctuations have an impact as well, he noted, as purchasing power fell in markets where there has been a sharp deterioration against the U.S. dollar. Against a backdrop of these challenging business conditions, Nokia said it's going to "significantly" reduce its cost base, curtailing the use of external contractors, consultants and professional services and cutting operating expenses. Carolina Milanesi, research director in the wireless and mobile-devices practice of technology specialists Gartner, said it's important to focus on the bigger picture rather than the specific numbers being floated.
"Whether the mobile-phone market contracts 2% or 4% next year is not the main issue, because it is in any case a far cry from the growth rates the industry had grown accustomed to," she noted. What is in danger now, she said, as operators put the latest phones on sale at bargain prices when tied to long contracts, is the whole notion that consumers will keep upgrading their handsets and will be willing to pay 400 euros for a device. "Will there be a way of going back to that once the economy recovers or do you kill that notion forever?" she asked.
Thursday, 13 November 2008
Say Something!
Perhaps I was paranoid when I began with a caution on this blog. I was afraid of comments that will not only sully this place but also get me into trouble..... "oh ye of little faith!"
Well, I hope to hear from you at least. I know a blog is more of a soliloquy but I'm hoping for some brave souls to register with Google and comment. Come on it's not that difficult to register (comes with a free Google account).
the Quixote
Well, I hope to hear from you at least. I know a blog is more of a soliloquy but I'm hoping for some brave souls to register with Google and comment. Come on it's not that difficult to register (comes with a free Google account).
the Quixote
Wednesday, 12 November 2008
Sands deeper in the sand
I was reading a recent CNA article reporting that Sands managed to raise some US$2 bil to ease it's financial pains. While I'm not exactly sure how that was done (through bonds or capital injection or other means), this just came in.
Moody's cuts Las Vegas Sands further into junk
Associated Press, 11.12.08, 01:53 PM EST
Moody's Investors Service cut credit rating on casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp. two notches further into junk territory Wednesday, citing its high debt load and negative trends in Las Vegas, while praising plans to raise capital and trim development spending. At the corporate level, the agency cut several ratings, including the probability of default, to "B2" from "Ba3." Some $5 billion in credit facilities issued to the company's Las Vegas subsidiary were cut to "B2" from "Ba3," while $3.3 billion in facilities issued to operations in the Chinese gambling enclave of Macau were cut one notch to "B2" from "B1."
The agency said the ratings are on review for possible further downgrade, especially if a $2.1 billion capital raising program the company announced Monday did not come to fruition. It is set to close Friday. "Failure to successfully raise adequate new capital, even with the significant reduction in capital spending plans, would likely result in a covenant default and could jeopardize the company's ability to continue as a going concern," analyst Keith Foley said. If the capital raising program succeeds, it is "expected to alleviate concerns related to liquidity and covenant compliance."
Along with the capital raising plan, the company said Monday it would halt the development of three casinos and two hotel towers in Macau, a condo tower in Las Vegas and the non-casino portions of a complex in Bethlehem, Pa.
Moody's cuts Las Vegas Sands further into junk
Associated Press, 11.12.08, 01:53 PM EST
Moody's Investors Service cut credit rating on casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp. two notches further into junk territory Wednesday, citing its high debt load and negative trends in Las Vegas, while praising plans to raise capital and trim development spending. At the corporate level, the agency cut several ratings, including the probability of default, to "B2" from "Ba3." Some $5 billion in credit facilities issued to the company's Las Vegas subsidiary were cut to "B2" from "Ba3," while $3.3 billion in facilities issued to operations in the Chinese gambling enclave of Macau were cut one notch to "B2" from "B1."
The agency said the ratings are on review for possible further downgrade, especially if a $2.1 billion capital raising program the company announced Monday did not come to fruition. It is set to close Friday. "Failure to successfully raise adequate new capital, even with the significant reduction in capital spending plans, would likely result in a covenant default and could jeopardize the company's ability to continue as a going concern," analyst Keith Foley said. If the capital raising program succeeds, it is "expected to alleviate concerns related to liquidity and covenant compliance."
Along with the capital raising plan, the company said Monday it would halt the development of three casinos and two hotel towers in Macau, a condo tower in Las Vegas and the non-casino portions of a complex in Bethlehem, Pa.
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
A simple tribute to Amos
A week after my birthday this year, Amos Joel passed away. Amos who? Now that I'm walking away from the cellphone industry particularly, it is a good time to pay tribute to the man who gave us the cellphone. While he did not exactly invent the cellphone, he did invent the device that allowed phones to shake wireless hands with different stations as they wander around. I researched about Amos for material to write and beheld this apt article on my search engine.
Thank you Amos; you changed the world yet they know you not. God bless you, now that you have returned home to Him.
The father of switching who connected the world
Friday Nov 7 2008 13:55 By Phil Davison Financial Times
When you make a call on your mobile phone today, tip your hat to Amos E. Joel Jr, the American electrical engineer who patented the idea of a cellular phone system in 1972 and who has died at the age of 90. It was he who invented the electronic switching device that allowed phone users to move from one "cell area" to another without losing their connection.
Although another American, Martin Cooper, is widely credited with "inventing" the mobile phone for Motorola in 1973, his first wireless handset relied on a single base tower, linked up with the landline system, and had limited range. Wireless phones would eventually work "on the move" as a result of the technology detailed in Joel's invention of the previous year, US patent number 3,663,762, titled "Mobile Communication System".
"Without his invention, there wouldn't be all these people walking around with cellphones," according to Frank Vigilante, who worked with Joel at Bell Telephone Laboratories. Bell initially hoped Joel's breakthrough might lead to 200,000 mobile phone users worldwide, something of an underestimate given the hundreds of millions of users today.
Although he was most renowned among his peers for that and other switching technology - he delighted in the label, "the father of switching" - it was only one of more than 70 patents held by Joel, a recent inductee into the US National Inventors Hall of Fame. His designs for early digital computers and "cryptanalysis" machines played an important role for the allies during the second world war as part of what was codenamed Project X. After visiting Bell Labs, then in New York City, British computer pioneer Alan Turing incorporated some of Joel's ideas into the digital computer, Colossus, which helped crack Nazi codes.
Joel and his colleagues at Bell also designed a scrambler codenamed Sigsaly, which allowed Winston Churchill, from the Cabinet War Rooms in London, to have vital encrypted conversations with Franklin D. Roosevelt, the US president, in Washington. The system's main terminal was so big that it had to be installed elsewhere, in the basement of Selfridge's department store on London's Oxford Street. Joel's role in the cryptography team is commemorated on a wall at the Bletchley Park museum, Buckinghamshire, the wartime code-breaking centre.
Half a century on, in 1994, the producers of the television mini-series, World War II: When Lions Roared, enlisted Joel to help design their reconstruction of the room where Churchill, played in the series by Bob Hoskins, co-ordinated the war effort with Roosevelt. "Dad was extremely proud of his contribution during world war two. He was quite aware of the impact his cryptography team had on the outcome of the war," said Stephanie, one of his twin daughters.
After the war, Joel designed technology that allowed direct long-distance dialling, without the traditional operator, and designed the world's first computerised billing system, known as AMA. His patent for the latter was the longest document ever registered with the US Patent and Trademark Office, running to more than 500 pages. His switching technology would later help create such advances as the call waiting service, caller ID and the locking code for touch-tone phones.
Amos Edward Joel Jr was born in Philadelphia on March 12 1918, the only child of a travelling menswear salesman and his wife. When he was 11, the family moved to New York City, where he lived on West 86th Street, Manhattan, and commuted to the DeWitt Clinton boys' high school in the Bronx. He learnt to read music and play clarinet and saxophone but was, he said, "always curious how things worked", such as the signals on his electric train set. When his parents got their first dial phone, he wrote to the local telephone company to ask how it worked. Receiving an inadequate answer, he worked it out himself and, aged 14, invented his own "Joel All-Relay Dial System" - connecting all his friends on West 86th Street with lines he put up between apartments.
He graduated in electrical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with a bachelor's degree in 1940 and master's in 1942, joining Bell after getting his BSc (He would remain there for 43 years, until his retirement in 1983, after which he was kept on as a consultant).
As a student, he developed a fascination for patents, collecting copies of them and using them as "wallpaper" on his dormitory wall. During an "open house" day, when visitors were allowed, he invited a fellow student, Rhoda Fenton, up to his dorm on a blind date "to see my patents". She assumed this was code for "something more interesting" but he was too engrossed in his patents to make any amorous move. He spent the evening explaining to her that "it takes all of that to give you a dial tone". Back at home, she told her father ,"this guy's crazy" but they were wed in 1942 and remained so for 58 years.
With the explosion of mobile phones in recent years, Joel was modest but proud, according to his daughters. "Especially after 9/11. He felt extremely proud that his creation was able to link people with their loved ones during the last moments of their lives," says Stephanie. He never felt the need to get a modern model but kept one of his prototypes, the size of a brick, in his car, using it mostly to order a pizza on his way home from work.
Joel never earned significant money from his cellular or other breakthroughs. "He invented not for the money, but for the betterment of humanity," says Stephanie. "He always wanted to use his mind to make the world a better place."
Joel died of heart failure at his home in Maplewood, New Jersey, on October 25. His wife died in 2000 and their son Jeffrey in 2003. He is survived by his daughters, Stephanie and Andrea.
Thank you Amos; you changed the world yet they know you not. God bless you, now that you have returned home to Him.
The father of switching who connected the world
Friday Nov 7 2008 13:55 By Phil Davison Financial Times
When you make a call on your mobile phone today, tip your hat to Amos E. Joel Jr, the American electrical engineer who patented the idea of a cellular phone system in 1972 and who has died at the age of 90. It was he who invented the electronic switching device that allowed phone users to move from one "cell area" to another without losing their connection.
Although another American, Martin Cooper, is widely credited with "inventing" the mobile phone for Motorola in 1973, his first wireless handset relied on a single base tower, linked up with the landline system, and had limited range. Wireless phones would eventually work "on the move" as a result of the technology detailed in Joel's invention of the previous year, US patent number 3,663,762, titled "Mobile Communication System".
"Without his invention, there wouldn't be all these people walking around with cellphones," according to Frank Vigilante, who worked with Joel at Bell Telephone Laboratories. Bell initially hoped Joel's breakthrough might lead to 200,000 mobile phone users worldwide, something of an underestimate given the hundreds of millions of users today.
Although he was most renowned among his peers for that and other switching technology - he delighted in the label, "the father of switching" - it was only one of more than 70 patents held by Joel, a recent inductee into the US National Inventors Hall of Fame. His designs for early digital computers and "cryptanalysis" machines played an important role for the allies during the second world war as part of what was codenamed Project X. After visiting Bell Labs, then in New York City, British computer pioneer Alan Turing incorporated some of Joel's ideas into the digital computer, Colossus, which helped crack Nazi codes.
Joel and his colleagues at Bell also designed a scrambler codenamed Sigsaly, which allowed Winston Churchill, from the Cabinet War Rooms in London, to have vital encrypted conversations with Franklin D. Roosevelt, the US president, in Washington. The system's main terminal was so big that it had to be installed elsewhere, in the basement of Selfridge's department store on London's Oxford Street. Joel's role in the cryptography team is commemorated on a wall at the Bletchley Park museum, Buckinghamshire, the wartime code-breaking centre.
Half a century on, in 1994, the producers of the television mini-series, World War II: When Lions Roared, enlisted Joel to help design their reconstruction of the room where Churchill, played in the series by Bob Hoskins, co-ordinated the war effort with Roosevelt. "Dad was extremely proud of his contribution during world war two. He was quite aware of the impact his cryptography team had on the outcome of the war," said Stephanie, one of his twin daughters.
After the war, Joel designed technology that allowed direct long-distance dialling, without the traditional operator, and designed the world's first computerised billing system, known as AMA. His patent for the latter was the longest document ever registered with the US Patent and Trademark Office, running to more than 500 pages. His switching technology would later help create such advances as the call waiting service, caller ID and the locking code for touch-tone phones.
Amos Edward Joel Jr was born in Philadelphia on March 12 1918, the only child of a travelling menswear salesman and his wife. When he was 11, the family moved to New York City, where he lived on West 86th Street, Manhattan, and commuted to the DeWitt Clinton boys' high school in the Bronx. He learnt to read music and play clarinet and saxophone but was, he said, "always curious how things worked", such as the signals on his electric train set. When his parents got their first dial phone, he wrote to the local telephone company to ask how it worked. Receiving an inadequate answer, he worked it out himself and, aged 14, invented his own "Joel All-Relay Dial System" - connecting all his friends on West 86th Street with lines he put up between apartments.
He graduated in electrical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with a bachelor's degree in 1940 and master's in 1942, joining Bell after getting his BSc (He would remain there for 43 years, until his retirement in 1983, after which he was kept on as a consultant).
As a student, he developed a fascination for patents, collecting copies of them and using them as "wallpaper" on his dormitory wall. During an "open house" day, when visitors were allowed, he invited a fellow student, Rhoda Fenton, up to his dorm on a blind date "to see my patents". She assumed this was code for "something more interesting" but he was too engrossed in his patents to make any amorous move. He spent the evening explaining to her that "it takes all of that to give you a dial tone". Back at home, she told her father ,"this guy's crazy" but they were wed in 1942 and remained so for 58 years.
With the explosion of mobile phones in recent years, Joel was modest but proud, according to his daughters. "Especially after 9/11. He felt extremely proud that his creation was able to link people with their loved ones during the last moments of their lives," says Stephanie. He never felt the need to get a modern model but kept one of his prototypes, the size of a brick, in his car, using it mostly to order a pizza on his way home from work.
Joel never earned significant money from his cellular or other breakthroughs. "He invented not for the money, but for the betterment of humanity," says Stephanie. "He always wanted to use his mind to make the world a better place."
Joel died of heart failure at his home in Maplewood, New Jersey, on October 25. His wife died in 2000 and their son Jeffrey in 2003. He is survived by his daughters, Stephanie and Andrea.
Changing of guards
UIQ Technology Staff Put On "Notice Of Dismissal"
Tuesday November 11, 7:53 am ET By Dianne See Morrison paidContent.org
This wasn't entirely unexpected, given Nokia's purchase of Symbian. Staff at UIQ Technology, the Symbian-based mobile application development platform and graphical interface, were warned that they were facing layoffs following the decision by its co-owners Sony Ericsson and Motorola to stop using its software. Allaboutsymbian.com reports that following the company's board meeting last Wednesday, it was feared that UIQ would have to cease operations immediately. Sony Ericsson, however, has stepped in and will fund the company on a month-by-month basis to allow the company to figure out its options. The Symbian Foundation is supposed to take the best pieces from the various interfaces UIQ, MOAP, and S60 and combine them into a single interface layer, but as the Register notes, what this really means is "co-opting interesting features into the next version of S60 - leaving MOAP and UIQ developers in the cold."
RAZR Burned
Posted at 3:08 PM PT on November 10, 2008 Digital Daily by John Paczkowski
The Motorola Razr’s 12-quarter streak as the No. 1-ranked handset in the United States has finally been broken–by Apple, of all companies. According to a survey by NPD, the Razr V3 slipped to second place behind Apple’s iPhone 3G in the third quarter, apparently a victim of its own outdated design. “The displacement of the RAZR by the iPhone 3G represents a watershed shift in handset design from fashion to fashionable functionality,” said Ross Rubin, director of industry analysis for NPD. “Four of the five best-selling handsets in the third quarter were optimized for messaging and other advanced Internet features.” An interesting trend. Especially, since smartphones tend to be quite a bit pricier than their dumbphone counterparts. Indeed, AT&T, the iPhone’s exclusive carrier in the U.S., offers the device for $200 with a two-year contract, while it offers Motorola’s RAZR V3xx Platinum for $0.01. Seems $200 beats free, or essentially free, even in the ugliest of economic times–as long as it’s emblazoned with an Apple logo.
Tuesday November 11, 7:53 am ET By Dianne See Morrison paidContent.org
This wasn't entirely unexpected, given Nokia's purchase of Symbian. Staff at UIQ Technology, the Symbian-based mobile application development platform and graphical interface, were warned that they were facing layoffs following the decision by its co-owners Sony Ericsson and Motorola to stop using its software. Allaboutsymbian.com reports that following the company's board meeting last Wednesday, it was feared that UIQ would have to cease operations immediately. Sony Ericsson, however, has stepped in and will fund the company on a month-by-month basis to allow the company to figure out its options. The Symbian Foundation is supposed to take the best pieces from the various interfaces UIQ, MOAP, and S60 and combine them into a single interface layer, but as the Register notes, what this really means is "co-opting interesting features into the next version of S60 - leaving MOAP and UIQ developers in the cold."
RAZR Burned
Posted at 3:08 PM PT on November 10, 2008 Digital Daily by John Paczkowski
The Motorola Razr’s 12-quarter streak as the No. 1-ranked handset in the United States has finally been broken–by Apple, of all companies. According to a survey by NPD, the Razr V3 slipped to second place behind Apple’s iPhone 3G in the third quarter, apparently a victim of its own outdated design. “The displacement of the RAZR by the iPhone 3G represents a watershed shift in handset design from fashion to fashionable functionality,” said Ross Rubin, director of industry analysis for NPD. “Four of the five best-selling handsets in the third quarter were optimized for messaging and other advanced Internet features.” An interesting trend. Especially, since smartphones tend to be quite a bit pricier than their dumbphone counterparts. Indeed, AT&T, the iPhone’s exclusive carrier in the U.S., offers the device for $200 with a two-year contract, while it offers Motorola’s RAZR V3xx Platinum for $0.01. Seems $200 beats free, or essentially free, even in the ugliest of economic times–as long as it’s emblazoned with an Apple logo.
Friday, 7 November 2008
Sands not in trouble?
Companies don't file with the SEC just for kicks, so let's read the article below with a pinch of salt. In fact, as a preamble, read THIS so that you understand the background of why Stanley has to issue a vague denial, which in PR-speak smacks of "there's sh**, there's a fan and both are on a collision course".
No indication of default from Las Vegas Sands, says DBS Group
Posted: 07 November 2008 1604 hrs ChannelNewsAsia
SINGAPORE - US gaming firm Las Vegas Sands intends to finish a casino project it is building in Singapore and there are no indications it will default on loans, lender DBS Group said Friday. DBS is one of 40 banks that formed a syndicate to fund the Marina Bay Sands casino development, which is estimated to cost more than four billion US dollars.
"All signals I'm getting from the management of Las Vegas Sands is that they intend to finish the project and move on," DBS chief executive Richard Stanley said at a news conference on the bank's third-quarter earnings. "I have to accept what they say and I have seen in recent days a strong commitment to the project from Las Vegas Sands... There's been no default, there's been no indication of default," he said, adding there was no need to provide for loan provisions.
"As of now, all the equity commitments have been made, the project is proceeding in pace." Stanley's comments followed a filing by Las Vegas Sands on Thursday with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in which it sounded out a warning about its financial situation. In the filing, the gaming giant said it may have to stop or ease up the pace of its global projects should it fail to secure the necessary funding or obtain favourable credit terms.
"If the company is not able to obtain the requisite financing or the terms are not as favourable as it anticipates, the company may be required to slow or suspend its global development activities... until such financing or other sources of funds become available," Las Vegas Sands said. "These factors raise a substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern."
It said Las Vegas Sands' projects in Macau's Cotai Strip will be among those affected. The company, headed by billionaire gaming tycoon Sheldon Adelson, operates the Sands Macao and The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel in Macau. Last month, a Singapore local newspaper reported that Marina Bay Sands may not open fully as scheduled at the end of next year due to construction problems, rising costs and a labour shortage.
However, Marina Bay Sands general manager George Tanasijevich told AFP at the time that the project was on target to open as scheduled.
- AFP/ir
No indication of default from Las Vegas Sands, says DBS Group
Posted: 07 November 2008 1604 hrs ChannelNewsAsia
SINGAPORE - US gaming firm Las Vegas Sands intends to finish a casino project it is building in Singapore and there are no indications it will default on loans, lender DBS Group said Friday. DBS is one of 40 banks that formed a syndicate to fund the Marina Bay Sands casino development, which is estimated to cost more than four billion US dollars.
"All signals I'm getting from the management of Las Vegas Sands is that they intend to finish the project and move on," DBS chief executive Richard Stanley said at a news conference on the bank's third-quarter earnings. "I have to accept what they say and I have seen in recent days a strong commitment to the project from Las Vegas Sands... There's been no default, there's been no indication of default," he said, adding there was no need to provide for loan provisions.
"As of now, all the equity commitments have been made, the project is proceeding in pace." Stanley's comments followed a filing by Las Vegas Sands on Thursday with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in which it sounded out a warning about its financial situation. In the filing, the gaming giant said it may have to stop or ease up the pace of its global projects should it fail to secure the necessary funding or obtain favourable credit terms.
"If the company is not able to obtain the requisite financing or the terms are not as favourable as it anticipates, the company may be required to slow or suspend its global development activities... until such financing or other sources of funds become available," Las Vegas Sands said. "These factors raise a substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern."
It said Las Vegas Sands' projects in Macau's Cotai Strip will be among those affected. The company, headed by billionaire gaming tycoon Sheldon Adelson, operates the Sands Macao and The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel in Macau. Last month, a Singapore local newspaper reported that Marina Bay Sands may not open fully as scheduled at the end of next year due to construction problems, rising costs and a labour shortage.
However, Marina Bay Sands general manager George Tanasijevich told AFP at the time that the project was on target to open as scheduled.
- AFP/ir
Thursday, 6 November 2008
It usually gets worse before it gets better
Motorola's Turnaround Plans Meet with Skepticism
BusinessWeek Telecom October 31, 2008, 12:01AM EST By Olga Kharif and Roger O. Crockett
Analysts see a tough battle for the handset maker to increase sales amid a global economic downturn. Motorola's own expectations for the current quarter are low
The latest flurry of turnaround plans for Motorola is being met with about as much enthusiasm as previous attempts to revive the company's foundering mobile-phone business: not much.
During an Oct. 30 conference call discussing the third-quarter results that included falling sales and a wider loss, Motorola co-CEO Sanjay Jha outlined plans to reduce costs, streamline the way the company makes products, and delay a spin-off of the handset business. Along with a dour warning that sales will continue to slump, the announcements did little to shore up confidence. Motorola's already embattled shares tumbled 5.3% to 5.17. RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Sue cut his 12-month Motorola price target to 7 a share from 8.
To trim losses and help eliminate $600 million in expenses, Motorola plans to cut about 3,000 jobs, two-thirds of them in the handset division. The company will also reduce its focus on certain markets, such as Europe, while stepping up emphasis on the Americas and China. Motorola also plans to retool products so that it makes low-end phones based on its own software and high-end phones that only run Microsoft's Windows Mobile operating system and the Android software developed by the Google-led Open Handset Alliance.
Grim Outlook
The moves are aimed at restoring the company's dwindling fortunes. In the third quarter, the operating loss at Motorola's handset division widened to $840 million from $248 million a year earlier. Unit sales dropped 32%, to 25.4 million from a year earlier, and the company's market share plummeted to 8.4% globally, down from 9.5% in the second quarter and 22.4% in 2006, when Motorola's Razr handset was all the rage. In the period, Motorola lost its No. 3 place among the world's largest handset makers to Sony Ericsson, according to Strategy Analytics.
Prospects have only worsened this quarter—traditionally the most crucial for cell-phone makers because it includes yearend holiday purchases. Jha expects unit sales to be lower than in the third quarter. That's in contrast to industry trends. Global cell-phone shipments should rise 10.5% to 11% in the quarter, according to research firm ABI Research.
Will revival efforts by Jha and co-CEO Greg Brown work? Not immediately. Motorola's market share is likely to keep falling in the coming year, say analysts including Matt Thornton of Avian Securities and Ken Hyers of Technology Business Research. Thornton says the company's share could dip to as low as 6% next year.
As Motorola focuses on making its phones more profitable, analysts say it may sacrifice the scale that makes it able to compete with bigger rivals including Nokia. The company currently sells about 100 million units a year; as the number drops, the cost of making each phone may increase.
"They are getting dangerously close to losing that valuable scale," says Neil Mawston, director of mobile wireless practice at Strategy Analytics in London. Once production slips below 100 million annually, per-unit costs could rise by 10% to 20%, he estimates. These higher costs could, in turn, make winning new, profitable deals with carriers harder. "No one wants to catch a falling knife," Mawston says.
Fewer Operating Systems
Jha argues that some smaller handset makers are doing just fine. "Scale in wireless is important," he tells BusinessWeek. "But there are meaningful [companies], namely Apple and Research In Motion, who have much less scale than we do." Each sells about 10 million phones a year. "We are fortunate to have the scale," he adds. "But as we move forward we have to make a trade-off. It's not by design that we want to lower volume, but as we migrate the business to a place it needs to be,, this is part of the trade-off that happens in that transition period."
Part of Motorola's transition is cutting fat. After trimming $474 million in operating expenses this year, the handset division has earmarked another $600 million in expense reductions for 2009. The company hopes to reduce costs partly by building phones out of parts from fewer vendors. To that end, Motorola has already ended contracts with chipmaker Freescale.
Motorola also wants to use fewer operating systems. But what happens if a wireless carrier wants Motorola to build phones using a system other than the handful it has chosen? "There's very much an addiction to winning big chunks of business," says Bill Hughes, who formerly worked at Motorola and is now principal analyst at In-Stat. "If you give them a big enough order, they'll build it. The fact of the matter is, they've talked about [reducing the types of software they support] several times in the past couple of years. But it all comes back to their addiction to big orders."
Investing in a Comeback
This time around will be different, co-CEO Brown tells BusinessWeek. Jha's predecessors lacked his mobile-industry experience and technical expertise. The former COO at mobile chip maker Qualcomm is credited with helping turn Qualcomm's chip division into the largest mobile chip business in the world, with $5.7 billion in sales last year. He burnished Qualcomm's reputation as a nimble, innovative competitor. And he was the point person for developing the company's road maps and plotting forays into new wireless technologies. "There has never been [a leader] with the caliber of software and technical leadership of Sanjay at Motorola before," Brown says. "He is taking it to next level swiftly."
Taking Motorola to the next level will require investing, however. To collaborate with Microsoft more closely on Windows Mobile devices, Motorola will open an office in Seattle. Motorola is also beefing up its software team that works on the Android operating system. Jha will also spearhead efforts to bulk up the services that would come standard on Motorola handsets. "Services and [user experience] will become very important," Jha said during the earnings call. Motorola may develop a way to help consumers to easily find the nearest hair salon or a coffee shop, for example. "We want to solve the problems that consumers want solved."
Adding to the challenges facing Jha, who joined Motorola in August, is orchestrating a comeback amid a global economic downturn and slowed cell-phone sales growth. The last time Motorola suffered massive market share losses, its share dropped from 27% in 1996 to 13.9% in 2002, before its legendary Razr phone launched, according to Strategy Analytics. Even after the Razr became a bestseller, Motorola's market share never rose to its former glory. "Motorola has recovered from a slump before, but it took them a full 10 years," Mawston says. "That gives some idea of how big a task Motorola still faces."
BusinessWeek Telecom October 31, 2008, 12:01AM EST By Olga Kharif and Roger O. Crockett
Analysts see a tough battle for the handset maker to increase sales amid a global economic downturn. Motorola's own expectations for the current quarter are low
The latest flurry of turnaround plans for Motorola is being met with about as much enthusiasm as previous attempts to revive the company's foundering mobile-phone business: not much.
During an Oct. 30 conference call discussing the third-quarter results that included falling sales and a wider loss, Motorola co-CEO Sanjay Jha outlined plans to reduce costs, streamline the way the company makes products, and delay a spin-off of the handset business. Along with a dour warning that sales will continue to slump, the announcements did little to shore up confidence. Motorola's already embattled shares tumbled 5.3% to 5.17. RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Sue cut his 12-month Motorola price target to 7 a share from 8.
To trim losses and help eliminate $600 million in expenses, Motorola plans to cut about 3,000 jobs, two-thirds of them in the handset division. The company will also reduce its focus on certain markets, such as Europe, while stepping up emphasis on the Americas and China. Motorola also plans to retool products so that it makes low-end phones based on its own software and high-end phones that only run Microsoft's Windows Mobile operating system and the Android software developed by the Google-led Open Handset Alliance.
Grim Outlook
The moves are aimed at restoring the company's dwindling fortunes. In the third quarter, the operating loss at Motorola's handset division widened to $840 million from $248 million a year earlier. Unit sales dropped 32%, to 25.4 million from a year earlier, and the company's market share plummeted to 8.4% globally, down from 9.5% in the second quarter and 22.4% in 2006, when Motorola's Razr handset was all the rage. In the period, Motorola lost its No. 3 place among the world's largest handset makers to Sony Ericsson, according to Strategy Analytics.
Prospects have only worsened this quarter—traditionally the most crucial for cell-phone makers because it includes yearend holiday purchases. Jha expects unit sales to be lower than in the third quarter. That's in contrast to industry trends. Global cell-phone shipments should rise 10.5% to 11% in the quarter, according to research firm ABI Research.
Will revival efforts by Jha and co-CEO Greg Brown work? Not immediately. Motorola's market share is likely to keep falling in the coming year, say analysts including Matt Thornton of Avian Securities and Ken Hyers of Technology Business Research. Thornton says the company's share could dip to as low as 6% next year.
As Motorola focuses on making its phones more profitable, analysts say it may sacrifice the scale that makes it able to compete with bigger rivals including Nokia. The company currently sells about 100 million units a year; as the number drops, the cost of making each phone may increase.
"They are getting dangerously close to losing that valuable scale," says Neil Mawston, director of mobile wireless practice at Strategy Analytics in London. Once production slips below 100 million annually, per-unit costs could rise by 10% to 20%, he estimates. These higher costs could, in turn, make winning new, profitable deals with carriers harder. "No one wants to catch a falling knife," Mawston says.
Fewer Operating Systems
Jha argues that some smaller handset makers are doing just fine. "Scale in wireless is important," he tells BusinessWeek. "But there are meaningful [companies], namely Apple and Research In Motion, who have much less scale than we do." Each sells about 10 million phones a year. "We are fortunate to have the scale," he adds. "But as we move forward we have to make a trade-off. It's not by design that we want to lower volume, but as we migrate the business to a place it needs to be,, this is part of the trade-off that happens in that transition period."
Part of Motorola's transition is cutting fat. After trimming $474 million in operating expenses this year, the handset division has earmarked another $600 million in expense reductions for 2009. The company hopes to reduce costs partly by building phones out of parts from fewer vendors. To that end, Motorola has already ended contracts with chipmaker Freescale.
Motorola also wants to use fewer operating systems. But what happens if a wireless carrier wants Motorola to build phones using a system other than the handful it has chosen? "There's very much an addiction to winning big chunks of business," says Bill Hughes, who formerly worked at Motorola and is now principal analyst at In-Stat. "If you give them a big enough order, they'll build it. The fact of the matter is, they've talked about [reducing the types of software they support] several times in the past couple of years. But it all comes back to their addiction to big orders."
Investing in a Comeback
This time around will be different, co-CEO Brown tells BusinessWeek. Jha's predecessors lacked his mobile-industry experience and technical expertise. The former COO at mobile chip maker Qualcomm is credited with helping turn Qualcomm's chip division into the largest mobile chip business in the world, with $5.7 billion in sales last year. He burnished Qualcomm's reputation as a nimble, innovative competitor. And he was the point person for developing the company's road maps and plotting forays into new wireless technologies. "There has never been [a leader] with the caliber of software and technical leadership of Sanjay at Motorola before," Brown says. "He is taking it to next level swiftly."
Taking Motorola to the next level will require investing, however. To collaborate with Microsoft more closely on Windows Mobile devices, Motorola will open an office in Seattle. Motorola is also beefing up its software team that works on the Android operating system. Jha will also spearhead efforts to bulk up the services that would come standard on Motorola handsets. "Services and [user experience] will become very important," Jha said during the earnings call. Motorola may develop a way to help consumers to easily find the nearest hair salon or a coffee shop, for example. "We want to solve the problems that consumers want solved."
Adding to the challenges facing Jha, who joined Motorola in August, is orchestrating a comeback amid a global economic downturn and slowed cell-phone sales growth. The last time Motorola suffered massive market share losses, its share dropped from 27% in 1996 to 13.9% in 2002, before its legendary Razr phone launched, according to Strategy Analytics. Even after the Razr became a bestseller, Motorola's market share never rose to its former glory. "Motorola has recovered from a slump before, but it took them a full 10 years," Mawston says. "That gives some idea of how big a task Motorola still faces."
Wednesday, 5 November 2008
Yes We Can
I was mesmerised by Lincoln's Gettysburg address and considered it a literary gem. I thought Martin Luther King, Jr's I Have A Dream came close. I thought Yes We Can comes just as close if not closer. Since it is a speech I've decided on a larger font to make it easier for your eyes. Read it and treasure it.
If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.
It’s the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.
It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled - Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.
It’s the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.
It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.
I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and he’s fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nation’s promise in the months ahead.
I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.
I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last sixteen years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nation’s next First Lady, Michelle Obama. Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that’s coming with us to the White House. And while she’s no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.
To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics - you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you’ve sacrificed to get it done.
But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to - it belongs to you.
I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn’t start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington - it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.
It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation’s apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.
I know you didn’t do this just to win an election and I know you didn’t do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime - two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they’ll make the mortgage, or pay their doctors bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.
The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America - I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you - we as a people will get there.
There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can’t solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way its been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years - block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.
What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek - it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.
So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, its that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers - in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.
Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House - a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, We are not enemies, but friends, though passion may have strained it, it must not break our bonds of affection. And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn - I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.
And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world - our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down - we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security - we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America’s beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.
For that is the true genius of America - that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.
This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that’s on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She’s a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing - Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.
She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn’t vote for two reasons - because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.
And tonight, I think about all that she’s seen throughout her century in America - the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can’t, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.
At a time when women’s voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.
When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.
When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.
She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that We Shall Overcome. Yes we can.
A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.
America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves - if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?
This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time - to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth - that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:Yes We Can.
Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.
If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.
It’s the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.
It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled - Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.
It’s the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.
It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.
I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and he’s fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nation’s promise in the months ahead.
I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.
I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last sixteen years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nation’s next First Lady, Michelle Obama. Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that’s coming with us to the White House. And while she’s no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.
To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics - you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you’ve sacrificed to get it done.
But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to - it belongs to you.
I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn’t start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington - it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.
It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation’s apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.
I know you didn’t do this just to win an election and I know you didn’t do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime - two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they’ll make the mortgage, or pay their doctors bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.
The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America - I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you - we as a people will get there.
There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can’t solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way its been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years - block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.
What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek - it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.
So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, its that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers - in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.
Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House - a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, We are not enemies, but friends, though passion may have strained it, it must not break our bonds of affection. And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn - I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.
And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world - our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down - we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security - we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America’s beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.
For that is the true genius of America - that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.
This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that’s on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She’s a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing - Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.
She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn’t vote for two reasons - because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.
And tonight, I think about all that she’s seen throughout her century in America - the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can’t, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.
At a time when women’s voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.
When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.
When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.
She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that We Shall Overcome. Yes we can.
A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.
America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves - if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?
This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time - to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth - that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:Yes We Can.
Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.
Saturday, 1 November 2008
A test of character
Abraham Lincoln said that if you want to test a man’s character, give him power. I just had a glimpse of someone who went through such a test. He did not have the nicest of things to do or say but he certainly had the power to do many other things which felt good or made him oblivious to issues and concerns at hand. But he did something else.
My boss and ex-boss and soon to be ex-boss….. wait, I’m not sure he’s my current boss in the first place! Let me provide some perspective – he was my boss when he left. He returned presumably to be my boss but perhaps was beaten to the tape by circumstances that led to the above test. I’ll never know if he ever became my boss again then, but if he did, it will be my shortest-lived relationship.
He had the unenviable task of telling some of his friends they are no longer needed, 2 weeks after returning to a pretty rousing “welcome back”. While the corporation is trying to make and execute all the “right decisions”, he showed a heart. One that shares pains and misgivings. One that cares. One that says more than the letters he handed out. I’ve never seen the emotional side of him and it was unforgettable.
He showed humility to be compassionate in the face of someone’s adversity, real or perceived. And that’s what makes him real. Neil, thanks for all the humour, guidance and leading, and for being the person you can become. While it lasted, it was good.
Shalom,
the quixote
My boss and ex-boss and soon to be ex-boss….. wait, I’m not sure he’s my current boss in the first place! Let me provide some perspective – he was my boss when he left. He returned presumably to be my boss but perhaps was beaten to the tape by circumstances that led to the above test. I’ll never know if he ever became my boss again then, but if he did, it will be my shortest-lived relationship.
He had the unenviable task of telling some of his friends they are no longer needed, 2 weeks after returning to a pretty rousing “welcome back”. While the corporation is trying to make and execute all the “right decisions”, he showed a heart. One that shares pains and misgivings. One that cares. One that says more than the letters he handed out. I’ve never seen the emotional side of him and it was unforgettable.
He showed humility to be compassionate in the face of someone’s adversity, real or perceived. And that’s what makes him real. Neil, thanks for all the humour, guidance and leading, and for being the person you can become. While it lasted, it was good.
Shalom,
the quixote
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