Thursday, 30 October 2008

Mot Q3 Results - Early reactions

Motorola Swings to Loss, Guides Lower
10/30/08 - 08:31 AM EDT TheStreet.com

Shares of Motorola jumped Thursday morning, even after the handset maker swung to a third-quarter loss, guided lower for the year and announced it would delay the separation of its mobile phone business. The struggling Schaumburg, Ill., tech giant swung to a loss of $397 million, or 18 cents a share, in the third quarter, compared with a profit of $60 million, or 3 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding one-time items, Motorola had a profit of 5 cents a share. Sales for the first quarter were $7.48 billion, down 15% from a year earlier. Gross margin declined to 24.1% from 28.8% a year ago and 28.4% sequentially.

On average, analysts expected a profit of 2 cents a share on sales of $7.82 billion in the quarter, according to Thomson Reuters. Motorola said mobile-device sales in the quarter were $3.1 billion, down 31% from last year and down slightly from the previous quarter. The division had an operating loss of $840 million in the quarter, compared to a loss of $248 million a year ago. The number of units shipped was 25.4 million, down from 28.1 million in the second quarter.

Performance in Motorola's other segments failed to offset weakness in the handset division. Motorola's home and networks mobility segment sales were $2.4 billion, down 1% from the year-ago quarter. The enterprise mobility segment saw sales rise 4% from a year earlier to $2 billion, although that figure was flat. Looking ahead, Motorola expects earnings in the fourth quarter in a range 2 cents to 4 cents a share, before items. For the full year, it now expects to book a profit of 5 cents a share to 7 cents a share, down slightly from its previous forecast. The Thomson Reuters average estimate is for a profit of 7 cents a share in the fourth quarter and 6 cents a share for the full year.

The company said it would also delay the split of its operations into two separate publicly traded companies. On March 26, the company announced it would seek to splinter off its troubled handset unit. Earlier this week, the company said it will split its home and networks mobility segment into three new units, which will be broadband home solutions, broadband access solutions, and cellular networks. "While our strategic intent to separate the company remains intact, we are no longer targeting the third quarter of 2009, primarily due to the macroeconomic environment, stresses in the financial markets and the changes underway in Mobile Devices," said Co-CEO Sanjay Jha.

The earnings release comes one day after media reports that said Motorola is moving quickly to scale back its struggling cell phone division, simplifying the way it makes devices and cutting additional jobs. Jha, who defected from Qualcomm to head up the wireless unit in August, is spearheading the process, according to reports. Shares of Motorola were jumping 8.8% to $5.94. Competing phone maker Nokia was up 6.8%, while Ericsson slipped 0.3% and Qualcomm was losing 0.7%. Among smart phone makers, Research In Motion rose more than 2%, while Apple was gaining 2.6%.

Motorola Swings to a Loss as Mobile Division Continues to Hurt
October 30, 2008, 8:51 A.M. ET By Kerry E. Grace Wall Street Journal

Motorola Inc. Swung to a third-quarter loss as the company announced it will delay its planned breakup and said results the rest of the year will fall short of expectations.The company posted a third-quarter net loss of $397 million, or 18 cents a share, compared with a net income of $60 million, or three cents a share, a year earlier. The latest results included net charges of 23 cents a share amid its restructuring efforts.

Sales fell 15% to $7.48 billion. In July, the company predicted earnings would be flat to two cents a share. Analysts most recently expected earnings of two cents on revenue of $7.82 billion. Gross margin slid to 24.1% from 28.4% as shipments continue to slump. Motorola shipped 25.4 million handset units in the quarter, down 32%, as it continues to fall from its one-time perch as industry leader. The company's mobile-devices division posted a wider loss of $840 million, as sales slid 31%. The loss included restructuring charges.

Motorola's new cellphone chief, former Qualcomm Inc. executive Sanjay Jha, who became co-chief executive in August, has begun overhauling the struggling division. Since joining Motorola, he has begun cutting back the number of separate operating systems the company uses for its cellphones. He said the intent to separate the company into two separate companies remains intact, but Motorola is no longer expecting that split in the third quarter of 2009 "due to the macroeconomic environment, stresses in the financial markets and the changes underway in mobile Services."

Motorola will divide into two companies, and will split one of those companies -- its home and networks mobility unit -- into three separate businesses for equipment for digital video, Internet-based video and modems, cellular networks and broadband access. Looking forward, Motorola now sees 2008 earnings from continuing operations of five cents to seven cents a share, down a penny from July's forecast, as it projected fourth-quarter earnings of two cents to four cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected seven cents a share for the quarter.

Motorola faces many challenges, not least of which is a lack of new product releases combined with smartphone innovations from competitors -- like Apple Inc.'s iPhone and Sprint Nextel Corp.'s Instinct -- which have led to Motorola's losing a large portion of its market share. Motorola launched its first touch-screen phone during the quarter. Handset makers could face more pressure this year, as the industry is in the early stages of a price war at a time when sales are expected to decline amid a global slowdown in consumer spending.

Wednesday, 29 October 2008

The tinkerer

When I was 15, my class packed us to a pond that was isolated and yucky but thriving with bugs and bacteria, worms and wriggles, fishes and frogs, flowers and foliage, and the odd critters of the mud. They all lived in harmony. A ate B who, in turn, chowed on C and so on. D produced certain chemicals that allowed E to survive and control the population of F. The wastes of E became food for C..... you get the idea. If you study biology, they call this an eco-system. It’s a great balance until you introduce, say, a big fish who finds D and its entire clan a tasty snack – the balance collapses and the pond dies.

Fast forward to 1987. The world was humming, the economy was good, people were going about their careers and young people entering the job market were planning for retirement…. until Black Monday!


Ten years later, the world was humming, the economy was good, people were going about their careers and currency brokers were busy buying and selling money….. until Tom Yam effect started in Thailand.

Ten years later, nothing happened! Well, it was actually delayed a year. The world was humming, people were busy buying and borrowing what they can’t afford..... and the balance collapsed, yet again.

It seems we never learn from illustrations around us. The financial ecology should have taught us that when the going is good, leave it alone and enjoy it. Don’t stir up the muck. Don’t introduce new stuff. But Man’s appetite for intervention and tinkering in the name of progress each time disturbs the balance and causes collapse. Now we are so accustomed to causing collapses that we are hell-bent on tinkering our tinkering. Well, then we shall see……

Tuesday, 28 October 2008

The calm before the storm

If you observe thunderstorms, there is usually an eerie calm before the clouds burst open each time. So we shall see…… here are a couple of articles of dark clouds gathering and whipping up of wind.

Modest Motorola
Elizabeth Woyke, 10.28.08, 1:39 PM ET Forbes

There is a benefit to modest expectations.

Motorola, which has been weighed down by its ailing Mobile Devices division, is expected to report results largely in line with analyst estimates when it announces its third-quarter earnings Thursday morning. "I don't see any major concerns," says Matt Thornton, a senior analyst at Avian Securities. "The numbers are already fairly conservative." The Schaumburg, Ill.-based tech firm has spent months revamping its mobile unit. Despite the appointment of a new co-chief executive in August and the introduction of some intriguing handsets, analysts polled by Thomson Financial predict that earnings per share will decrease year-over-year about 67% to two cents. Revenues are expected to drop about 12% to $7.77 billion. Thanks to its rivals' own woes, Motorola is expected to keep its No. 3 place in the much-watched rankings of phones shipped worldwide. The company has been losing share in the U.S., its chief market, for over a year. Analysts expect the trend to continue in the third quarter with Motorola controlling about 8.6% of the global market. That places it below Nokia and Samsung and a hair above Sony Ericsson and LG Electronics. Some of Motorola's problems are industry-wide. Handset sales typically get a boost in the third quarter from back-to-school shopping and the ramp-up for holiday spending. But sales this year have been softer than expected; growing about 3% year-over-year, instead of the usual 8%, says Deepak Sitaraman, a telecommunications equipment analyst at Credit Suisse. The economic downturn is expected to hit fourth-quarter sales, too, delivering about 15% growth instead of the usual 16-18% bump.

Some problems are particular to Motorola. In a season dominated by showy smart phone launches, Motorola still lacks a flagship handset. Analysts are cautiously optimistic about one new phone, the Krave ZN4, which boasts a flip-style touch screen and user-friendly software. In an Oct. 15 research note, Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis McCourt called the phone " ... an early indication that Motorola is making progress in the transition to a more software-centric handset market," but noted that the company needs more third-generation (3G) phones to compete with rivals like Apple and Research In Motion. More products are in the pipeline. The company has said that it plans to introduce 34 devices in the second half of 2008. Analysts have counted 12 handsets thus far, indicating that a flood of Motorola phones will hit stores within the next month or that the company is encountering delays. The subdued outlook has experts looking toward 2009. Analysts say they will be listening Thursday for clues about the next 12 to 18 months. Of particular interest: the economy's effect on Motorola's non-handset units, Home & Networks Mobility and Enterprise Mobility Solutions. The divisions, which produce set-top boxes, wireless network infrastructure, walkie talkies and bar code scanners, contribute 59% of the company's total revenues and normally grow about 5% a year. But their dependence on business and government spending could make them vulnerable next quarter and in 2009.

"The question mark is around the health of these other units," says Sitaraman. "Any meaningful macro-economic slowdown is bound to have some impact on them." Citing such weaknesses, Sitaraman and fellow analyst Kulbinder Garcha lowered their 2009 revenue and earnings per share estimates on Oct. 24. Analysts are also hoping for insights from Sanjay Jha, the new co-CEO of the mobile devices unit. Jha's August appointment means the third quarter call will be his first with Motorola. Jha has said that he doesn't expect his influence to show up in Motorola products until 2009 but is believed to be overseeing a high-profile launch based on Google's new mobile platform, Android. As the former chief operating officer of Qualcomm, Jha is also thought to be steering Motorola toward greater use of Qualcomm chips--a potential boon since Qualcomm is known for its 3G silicon. "There has been very limited communication from the company about Jha's plans," notes Sitaraman. "Investors are anxiously waiting for updates on product development and strategy." One area where Jha could have made an early mark is cost-cutting. Thornton says industry sources have hinted that the company may be trimming in places like sales, marketing and research and development. "The economy is deteriorating," notes Thornton. "Motorola may be looking for other opportunities to cut costs." There are also likely to be questions regarding the company's plan to spin off the mobile devices division. Executives have said the company will split in the third quarter of 2009, but tightening debt markets may complicate timing. "A spin-off by that date will be difficult to achieve," says Thornton. "The macro backdrop gives them a good excuse to delay it."

Motorola plans job cuts, focus on Google software: report
Tuesday October 28, 8:39 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Motorola Inc's co-chief executive, Sanjay Jha, plans to make more job cuts and simplify how it makes devices, the Wall Street Journal reported on its website on Tuesday. Details of the plan, which could include thousands of layoffs, could be announced Thursday, when the company reports its results, the paper said. Jha, who heads the mobile devices business, has decided to focus on Google Inc Android software as the operating system for many new phones, the Journal reported, citing unnamed sources. The paper said Motorola will build mid-tier devices, which account for most of its sales, around Android, while business-focused devices will be based on Microsoft Corp's Windows Mobile. The company will use its own platform, P2K, for low-end phones, the paper reported. The company is also seeking to outsource production of some Windows Mobile phones, the paper said. Motorola declined to comment.

Horror Part 2

According to the President of Credit Counselling Singapore, Mr Kuo How Nam, nearly 4 in 10 Singaporeans roll over their credit payments. As of June 2008, Singapore has some 1 million credit card holders. If the average holder has 2 cards, some 800,000 cards are earning interest for card companies. I believe not all roll over their payments because they cannot afford them. There is a significant group who can pay but are more willing to go into debt so that the cash they have on hand can be used for "other pursuits" in the name of opportunity costs.

The "opportunity costs" I learnt in school was explained to me in this way.
Say, you are a brilliant surgeon who makes $10,000 a day and you also have a passionate hobby in carpentering. You know you are so good at woodworking that you will probably do a better job than the average carpenter. When you want a cabinet built in your study, you're better off commissioning the average carpenter to do the job than doing it yourself despite knowing you'll come up with a better cabinet, because of your "opportunity costs".

As we've gotten that phrase out of the way, here's a sobering thought: 6 in 10 considered playing 4D as a leisure activity. The hope starts with getting more out of less and ends up with wanting something out of nothing; despite all of us being taught there is no free lunch. These are the opportunities people are seeking. Marketing text teach that a lipstick that costs less than $1 can be sold for $40 because it is selling "hope"!

The fraction that I teach my son says 4 in 10 can be replaced by 2 in 5. My wife and I both don't roll over our credit payments (our bills are too small; not because we're rich). So if we walk into 3 adults, 2 of them are credit revolvers! It is indeed an uncomfortable world. The rich man is not one who can afford a lot, but one who needs little.

"Rich" people don't have horrors, so strive to be "rich".

Monday, 27 October 2008

A horror called "Credit"

Without going into a litany of the sub-prime saga, it is easy to see that we in Singapore are enjoying a decent economy (albeit a quickly receding one now) that is pretty dependent upon our collective abilities to owe. We buy furniture we can't afford, cars we can't afford, houses we can't afford and sometimes, even appliances we can't afford. Perhaps "can't" isn't the right word.

The seduction of "extended repayment", "interest-free instalment", "your future today" and other creative tempts has so shapened our financial crutch that maybe "don't want to" is a better phrase for "can't". Furniture houses can lend up to 10 times your monthly salary while your credit card limit is only 2 times. Money makes the world go round.

Borrowed money makes the world go round quicker and somewhat more thrillingly.

Too thrillng that the Government decided to stop deferred payment schemes for property purchases exactly a year ago. It served us well in propping up the property market by distorting it for 10 years. It was hoped that the distortion will dissipate over time but it didn't, and in the softening market today, it has returned to haunt.

[DPS is when you put in a small amount of cash payment and borrow the rest with the condition that regular repayment begins only when the building is completed, which is usually 3 years later. 3 years is plenty of time to flip properties, so that you "run away" before repayment starts.]

If you plonked in 10% on a piece of property 2 years ago, a 30% drop 3 years later will more than negate your equity in the property and in times like this, banks will avoid you like a plague when the DPS is up. Anticipating this, you sell at a discount and you immediately create a vicious downward spiral for others like you, who are just a step slower.

While this is not the same as the sub-prime problem, it produces the same effect: banks or individuals holding onto properties worth far less than what they paid for or will be paying for. Those who are not flipping are innocent by-standers trapped in the same quagmire and I have friends like that. Suddenly the world ain't so thrilling.

If I learnt anything at all from my MBA finance modules, it is in just 3 little words, "cash is fact".

Friday, 24 October 2008

When a 6-yr-old goes to jail

I’m not sure if I should feel incensed or worried or resigned when a 6-year-old girl spends a night in jail. Apparently her mother was arrested while trying to hand a letter to the Prime Minister Department’s office. Since there was no one to look after her, the police put her in her mum’s care – in jail. Take a deep breath and let’s retrace the steps.

Someone was arrested under Malaysia’s Internal Security Act, which allows for detention without trial of suspects who are deemed a threat to national security. There were clamours to release him and a few others, for a variety of reasons, which failed. Supporters now resort to submitting letters to the Prime Minister to petition their release. A wife seeking the release of this husband joined the petition and was arrested with the group. Since mother and father are now detained, the poor girl is left alone and the police think it’s best that she’s cared for by her mother.

I have no comments on the Act, detention and arrest, but a 6-year-old in prison is something else! It reminds me of my son’s schoolmate who is growing up in a brothel – because his dad runs one.

Sometimes we stop thinking about the kids. We want them to grow up, true. We treat them like adults. We stop realising that they are not ready. Today CNN reported that Russian children beat a kangaroo to death in the zoo; throw in some seagulls too. When children lose their innocence, we blame their parents, their schools or their friends. Excuse me?

Thursday, 23 October 2008

Beginnings.....

The mind is a strange thing.
Over-used yet misunderstood; immobile yet roams all over; stays in the dark yet enlightened.

I've always thought of things and I've always forgotten them. I've always longed to recall precious reflections and I've always remembered none.
I've always had diaries and I've always procrastinated.
Perhaps now I can embark upon an interesting journey.

This is my space. You reach here either by my invitation or you stumble upon it. You are welcomed to share, contribute or repartee, just do not desecrate this space.
Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others; even the dull and ignorant; they too have their story.

Shalom,
the quixote